Global disruption in real time
A White House scramble to contain a crisis

The military operation begins at 1:15 a.m. EST. Trump releases a video announcement that focuses entirely on military justification, making no mention of potential economic fallout. Simultaneously, the European Union naval mission reports the first Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warnings to commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump announces that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is dead, following strikes conducted "working closely with Israel." Trump characterizes this as the "single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country" and warned the IRGC to surrender for immunity or face "certain death."

The global energy crisis begins in earnest as transit through the critical Strait of Hormuz drops dramatically, following four ship attacks and two reported deaths. Trump provides a military update but makes no public mention of the potential for energy price spikes.

Oil prices climb as Iran strikes other Gulf countries. Qatar halts production of liquefied natural gas and an IRGC official declares the Strait of Hormuz closed. White House advisers convene to monitor market reactions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio becomes the first official to acknowledge potential "economic fallout," while the White House press secretary emphasizes US insulation through domestic production and Venezuelan oil. A White House official explicitly rejects a potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve release as a policy response to suddenly surging retail gas prices.

Trump says oil prices may be "a little high" for "a little while." After officials meet to finalize the first policy responses, Trump on Truth Social pledges new maritime insurance and, "if necessary," US Naval escorts for commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

As market volatility picks up and stocks swoon, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the administration had planned for this contingency for months. He touts a "war risk insurance facility" that would later be proven unworkable. Energy Secretary Chris Wright declares "energy will flow soon" as another ship is attacked.

The Treasury Department issues a 30-day waiver for India to purchase Russian oil "on the water.” Secretary Wright chairs a UN session where he notably fails to mention the growing energy crisis. Trump says oil has "pretty much stabilized," but the Dow tumbles nearly 800 points, or 1.61%.

In a social media post, Trump demands Iran's "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER." His top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, flatly rejects a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release, while Secretary Bessent hints at "un-sanctioning" millions of barrels of oil on the water to create supply. The US International Development Finance Corporation announces a dramatically narrowed version of its insurance plan, admitting the initial version was premature.

Aboard Air Force One, Trump tells reporters he is "not worried" about gas prices and claims the strait is "cleaned out," despite the effective closure. US gas prices rise to $3.41 a gallon, up more than 40 cents since the war began.

Trump labels high oil prices a "very small price to pay," calling those who disagree "fools.” Secretary Wright asserts that the price spikes are driven by "fear and perception" and will only last weeks, not months.

Trump posts that "short term oil prices" are a "very small price to pay" for world safety and that "ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!"

Trump tells CBS the military operation is "very far" ahead of schedule and “very complete, pretty much.” His comments trigger one of the most dramatic market responses of the conflict, with oil prices tumbling from nearly $120 to below $90 per barrel, before paring some losses to settle at $98 per barrel. The optimistic rhetoric reverses an 800-point intraday drop in the Dow, which ultimately closes up 0.5%. Less noticed, however, is Trump's first threat to hit Iran "TWENTY TIMES HARDER" if they stop the flow of oil – a clear and public nod toward the rapidly growing concern inside the White House about the strait.

The price of oil plunges after Secretary Wright claims on X that the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the strait. The tweet is subsequently deleted and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirms no vessels have been escorted "at this time." Iran's foreign minister accuses the US of "posting fake news to manipulate markets." Meanwhile, Trump says the strait is being held "hostage" and that "it doesn't really affect us," but orders his team to lobby for a joint IEA oil reserve release just hours after Wright told allies the US opposed it.

Trump falsely tells a Kentucky rally that "oil prices are already coming back down," while taking credit for the IEA release he previously opposed. Secretary Wright admits the public must "suffer short-term pain.” Five more ships are attacked in the strait.

Secretary Wright argues US boldness is dismantling Iran's war machine; admits to short-term pain.

Trump tells waiting ships to "show some guts," while claiming the disruption is a net positive because the US will "make a lot of money" when prices are high. In another dramatic reversal, the Treasury Department expands Russian oil sanctions relief, which Secretary Bessent describes as a "short-term and temporary disruption.” Nonetheless, oil prices climb, with Brent crude settling above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022.

Trump announces a massive bombing raid on Kharg Island but claims he chose "NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure" for reasons of "decency.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the strait is open for transit as long as "Iran [is] not shooting at shipping.” The White House rolls out a series of minor policy actions (pipelines, LNG exports, Venezuela relief) to mitigate the price surge.

Trump shifts blame to allies, demanding China and Japan send their own warships to secure the waterway they depend on.

Trump tells reporters on Air Force One that other countries should help with regard to the Strait of Hormuz, singling out NATO. US gas prices hit $3.70 a gallon, up 24% since the war with Iran began.

Trump says the "mere thought of a single mine" is keeping ships away from the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary Bessent acknowledges a global oil deficit of 10–14 million barrels per day, while a White House report frames the conflict as a strategic effort to "return oil to its underlying equilibrium.”

Trump criticizes NATO for doing "absolutely nothing" after they refuse to join the military operation. The Department of Homeland Security issues a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act to allow foreign-flagged ships to transport energy between US ports.

Trump signals the US may "finish off" the Iranian state and leave the strait's responsibility to the countries that use it. Vice President JD Vance offers a rare candid warning of a "rough road ahead.”

Speaking in Auburn Hills, Vance gave one of the clearest distillations of the administration’s political message: The next few weeks would be painful, but the spike was temporary and would reverse once the conflict ended.

Trump tells reporters he thought the economic hit would be "much worse actually" than it turned out to be, declaring "WE ARE WINNING BIG!”

In a meeting with the Japanese prime minister at the White House, Trump discusses Japan "stepping up" on minesweepers.

In the most unthinkable policy reversal of the conflict, the Treasury Department lifts sanctions on Iranian oil stored at sea in its latest effort to prevent a projected oil price spike to $150 per barrel. The action is the exact opposite of the “maximum pressure” strategy Bessent pledged at the start of Operation Epic Fury. It provides a financial windfall for Iran, the only country whose ships have continued through the strait unobstructed since the start of the conflict.

Trump places a 48-hour deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to obliterate power plants, starting with the "BIGGEST ONE FIRST!” The aggressive "jawboning" triggers a Sunday night spike in oil prices back toward $119, re-injecting a massive risk premium into energy markets.

Secretary Bessent describes lifting Iranian sanctions as "jujitsu.” Iran counters by implementing a new $2 million transit fee for vessels passing through the strategic waterway.

Trump abruptly postpones strikes for five days, citing "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS." Brent crude drops 11% to settle below $100 for the first time in weeks. Global stock markets, including the S&P 500 and European indexes, surge by 1% or more as investors price in de-escalation.

Trump says he has received a "very big present" from Iran as evidence of good faith. Meanwhile, Iran officially begins preparing new regulations for passage through the strait.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt admits there is still no timeline for US Naval escorts. Iran demands reparations and recognition of its authority over the strait as ceasefire conditions.

Trump again delays the strike deadline, pushing it to April 6. He admits the "1% risk" of a missile strike makes a "99% decimation" of Iran’s military insufficient to consider the Strait of Hormuz passable. Stock markets are rocked by volatility: The tech-heavy Nasdaq sinks 2.4% and closes in correction.

Trump jokes about renaming the waterway the “Strait of Trump.” Secretary Rubio frames Iranian control as a hypothetical that "can't be allowed to exist," despite it being the operational reality. The Dow drops 1.73% and closes in correction, down 10% from its record high above 50,000 points in early February.

Vice President Vance calls the price spike a "very, very temporary reaction.” The Houthis enter the war by launching missiles at Israel. Iran allows 20 Pakistani-flagged ships to transit, a demonstration of selective control.

In a podcast interview, Vance repeats the administration’s central reassurance line as the month draws toward its close: Gas prices are up because of the Middle East, but the move is temporary.

Trump tells the Financial Times he wants to "take the oil in Iran" and seize Kharg Island "indefinitely," comparing it to the Venezuela strategy.

Trump threatens "obliterating" all power plants and desalination plants if the strait is not "Open for Business" shortly. Iran’s parliament approves a plan to impose tolls on ships passing through the waterway.

US gas prices soar past $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, after an Iranian drone strikes a Kuwaiti tanker.

In a primetime TV address, Trump claims the US "imports almost no oil through the Hormuz Strait" and insists allies "must take the lead." The messaging confirms to markets that a US-led military solution to reopen the waterway is not imminent and that there's no clear endgame, sustaining high prices.

Gas prices hit $4.08, up 37% since the war began. Brent crude surges nearly 8%, to $109 per barrel. French President Emmanuel Macron rejects Trump’s call for force as "unrealistic," while the UK organizes a meeting to assess "viable diplomatic and political measures.”

An F-15 is downed over Iran with one crewmember unaccounted for, marking the first US jet brought down by enemy fire in more than 20 years. Trump posts on his social media platform that with "a little more time," the US can "OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE.” NEC Director Hassett insists the current economy is different from the oil embargo in 1975 and continues to point to oil futures as proof that the conflict will be temporary and will be followed by rapid price declines.

US forces continue a high-stakes search and rescue operation for the missing crew member as fears mount of a hostage scenario. Iranian military officials escalate their rhetoric, warning the US and Israel face "hell" if the conflict expands. Meanwhile, average gas prices climb to $4.10 a gallon, eroding the US "shale buffer."

After US forces rescue the missing US service member, Trump issues a profanity-laced 48-hour ultimatum on social media, setting a deadline of “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!” for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump says Tuesday will be “Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day” for Iran if it does not “Open the Fuckin’ Strait.” Meanwhile, Iranian officials dismiss Trump’s rhetoric as “sheer desperation and rage,” reiterating that the waterway will only reopen under a “new legal regime” where transit tolls are used to compensate Iran for damages sustained during the conflict.

Trump reiterates threats to hit Iran’s bridges and power plants, claiming the Iranian people would be “willing to suffer” if it eventually secured their freedom. Tehran warns that the consequences of such attacks will stretch beyond the region. A first proposal for a 45-day ceasefire is considered by the US to be a “significant step” but “not good enough,” and Iran rejects the proposal outright.

Trump announces a two-week ceasefire with Iran, sending oil prices plunging and stock futures soaring.

Oil drops and the Dow posts its best day in a year as markets breathe a sigh of relief over the ceasefire. Yet the details remain fluid and scrutiny arises over whether oil tankers will be able to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump announces a negotiating team led by Vice President JD Vance will travel to Islamabad, Pakistan, for negotiations with Iran. Special envoys Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are also part of the US negotiating team.

Inflation data for March shows consumer prices tripled compared to February as the Iran war sent energy prices surging. US stocks post their best week so far this year on relief about the US-Iran ceasefire.

Vice President JD Vance announces the United States and Iran do not reach an agreement during talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. When markets open, oil prices climb toward $100 per barrel. But stocks also rise, with traders leaning in to optimism that the fragile ceasefire might still hold.