CNN One Thing

Where are you right now?

My home, my property, my RV park, my restaurant, and my house is in the same place.

So you live like right on site.

I live on site, yes, water got in my house.

Wow, what was that?

That is the rescue, the airboat, they probably found a body, every time it goes off is because the recovery team found somebody.

'The historic floods in central Texas have killed more than a hundred people after a summer's worth of rain dumped onto some areas in just a matter of hours. And in the five days since the disaster, alongside unimaginable grief, there are a lot of questions. Among them, were the forecasts accurate? Was there enough warning? Did people on the ground receive emergency alerts? Did Trump-fueled funding cuts in D.C. Slow anything down? So, as experts and politicians weigh in on the tragedy in Texas Hill Country What needs to happen as climate change makes extreme weather like this more common in the future? Today, we try to answer some of those questions. From CNN, this is One Thing. I'm David Rind. We're back in a bit.

First of all, July 3rd was one of the most beautiful days. Incredible weather, perfect weather. People were in the river jumping in and out, having a great time.

This is Lorena Guillén. She owns the Blue Oak RV Park, which sits right on the bank of the Guadalupe River in Kerrville, Texas. And in the early morning hours of July 4th, it started raining. The rain woke Lorena up around 2.30 in the morning. She went to check on the water level at the river, but it was fine.

I called the sheriff's department and asked them and they had no information at that point. So and I went to bed.

About an hour later, she woke up again, this time because of bright lights and commotion. She stepped outside and saw the river had risen significantly.

My birds are gone!

And most concerningly, a rescue team had arrived.

And the reason why the rescuers were there is one of my residents heard people screaming. And so my husband ran over there, got down to his waist in water and trying to ask the guy to throw his baby at him so he can save the baby. And the rescue team was trying to get in there. They tried so hard and they got washed away. The whole family of five got washed way. And my the lower level RVs were in water already at that point and they were getting washed away.

And you're watching all this happening.

Well, I wasn't watching. We were banging on doors, waking up people to evacuate them, to get them out. You know, they were trying to get their possessions and things like that, and we couldn't. They couldn't, but there was no time.

So five of your guests, you don't know what happened to them as of this point?

We heard not confirmed, but we heard that they were deceased.

I'm so sorry.

But people don't understand. I'm a tiny, tiny little part of the river and this happened everywhere for miles and miles. And, you know, so it's just absolutely insane.

So could more have been done before the water started rushing to prevent loss of life?

What I can tell you, when I was first notified, it was around the four to five area.

For example, in a press conference on Tuesday, the Kerr County Sheriff said he wasn't even made aware of the floods until hours after the first public warning from the National Weather Service at 1.14 a.m.

And we're in the process of trying to put a timeline. You know, that's gonna take a little bit of time. I've told you several times, that is not my priority this time. There's three priorities.

'Let's turn now to Bernadette Woods Placky. She is the chief meteorologist and vice president of engagement at Climate Central, which is a non-profit group that works with local meteorologists and journalists to make climate change stories more accessible. So Bernadett, I want to step back a bit to start. When the National Weather Service is forecasting a severe storm that could bring flash flooding, how does that forecast end up being alerted to local officials or people on the ground? How is that process supposed to work?

'So how's this supposed to work? Well, the National Weather Service offices are constantly monitoring the weather. What happens is, when you start to see a high-risk situation evolving, you are in contact with your local and your state emergency management officials ahead of that event. And it really depends on the event. In this situation, it was likely a day, two days, maybe three days, where they started those conversations. Now, flash flooding is so localized, The initial forecast showed the potential for high rainfall events. So those conversations were going on a few days out. The day of the event, even to 24 hours prior to the event there were conversations going on with the local and the state emergency management officials. Then as the event continued to evolve that day and you actually saw all these ingredients come together that's when they lead to a watch which is a notification, hey, heads up. This could happen, then that evolves into warnings that are, yes, this is happening.

So what you're describing is kind of a chain of communication from the top all the way down to the local level. So with the caveat that we're talking on Tuesday morning, we obviously might learn more in the days ahead. Do we know if there was a breakdown of any kind that could have delayed warnings to people on the ground as the rain was falling.

That is the biggest question right now, because as we dissect this event, the forecast was pretty solid. However, given the situation, the type of weather event that it was, that it was pushing records during the overnight hours of a holiday weekend, there's a lot of things that came together for really to make this a disaster. And the challenge that I'm seeing in this situation. Is that it's not just during the immediate event, but these relationships in local communities start months ahead of time. With all the stresses we've had to NOAA, to local national weather service offices, to a whole range of agencies, the last few months have been hard. And prior to these events, this is when we practice, this is what we prepare, this is one we have community engagement events, This is when people are connecting with the other community leaders, the full line of the emergency management chain, whether it's the first responders, whether the camp counselors and the camp leads, everyone is really part of that community who's responsible for lives. So I'm trying to take this back further because the community engagement part of the National Weather Service is so critical and often gets overlooked in this process.

'Well, to that point, we've talked a lot about the staffing that is down at these National Weather Service stations across the country. The AP reported that staffing is down by at least 20% at nearly half of the 122 National Weather Service field offices across the countries, some of which are no longer staffed 24-7. And the Austin San Antonio office specifically is missing a warning coordination meteorologist.

Where was the WCM?

I guess I'm wondering what impact that had because we heard from a former NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad who was on CNN on Tuesday morning and he said, quote,

I am convinced that the staff cuts that we saw were a contributing factor to the inability of the emergency managers to respond.

That this warning coordination meteorologist, the job there is to follow up with local officials to make sure they're receiving the warnings. So do you agree with him that that vacancy specifically might have played a role here?

It's hard for me to say specifically. Dr. Spinrad is way more versed in what's happening directly in these National Weather Service offices than myself, but what I've understood is, yes, the warning coordinating meteorologist is the lead for these public interactions with the media, with the first responders, with the camp counselors, with the people who are on the ground making these decisions, and that spot was empty. And what we've seen in this office is early buyout. That happen across a lot of these Weather Service Offices, right? And that's where experience matters. That's where trust comes in, relationship building. When you lose that, you lose a lot.

Right, and the National Weather Service is standing by the forecast it made. It said it even had extra staff on hand during the flood event. But you're saying that that might not be enough when you're missing positions who have these relationships with folks on the ground.

It comes down to preparedness and this is an ongoing situation. So I look at it through direct and indirect cuts, right? The direct cuts we're seeing, they delivered a forecast but that communication chain, not just with the National Weather Service where so much of this is focused but it's that full emergency management chain and they have to be in ordination during these extremes and I really wanna highlight this in this situation because we're appropriately dissecting the situation. But this is just a snapshot of so much more to come. We know in a changing climate, we're only gonna be faced with more of this.

So I wanna talk about some of that future and specifically the way that these alerts are kind of conveyed to the people who live in these areas. There's been a lot of talk about how certain counties in Texas may have not had as a robust flood warning system. We're talking about sirens, you know, specifically in Kerr County, they've kind of recognized the need for a more robust system, but haven't been able to kind of get the money or the will to get a system going. Over the years, and I guess do alerts need to be communicated or presented in a different way going forward given we live in a world where these extreme weather events are going to be more likely because of climate change.

'Yes, and we need more than one system, especially for these risks during overnight, right? And especially in an area that we know is prone to flash flooding and they know is prone flash flooding. So there's a couple of pieces to that. This is one of the benefits of people getting cell phones. I know that there are some questions of the self-service in this area, but getting these warnings on our phone is helpful. We have to make sure people don't turn them off though because I'm seeing too much of that. So that's one place.

Yeah, is alert fatigue a real thing?

It is. But there's another piece I want to bring to this, too, because the Noah Weather Radio is something from decades ago. This is old technology, but it works. And so in a place where...

Yeah but Bernadette who has those lying around like I don't know anybody.

Well, that's where I was going to go with this is it may not have it in every single RV, but if you run a camp with 750 people, if you run an RV park, if you are responsible for lives in some form or fashion, this is a great backup system to your cell phone because they are battery operated. They are really loud. Be really obnoxious and they will wake people up. So those are two distinct ways. The sirens is another way. So there are multiple ways we can do this and knowing that these risks are only increasing, we shouldn't just focus on one. We should try to supply as many warning systems as we can.

Right. And with climate change making these storms worse, more frequent, I guess, is it irresponsible not to meet the moment, whether it be through increased staffing or funding? And who should take the lead in that?

Who is really a great question. Is it irresponsible? Yes, because we know that our risks are only increasing. These storms are getting stronger. There's more rain with them. So we need to prepare for our current and future climates, not just dissect what's happened in the past. And that's really critical. And that where the conversation is stale in some ways is that we haven't truly acknowledged where we are in our current weather and extreme weather situations, let alone where we're going. And there are a lot of people who've tried to move this forward, but they are not only under resourced in a regular atmosphere, but right now they're getting all that cut.

Well, pie in the sky with me here, if there was much more funding, if there wasn't administration that wasn't hostile to climate science, what would the future of weather preparedness look like to you?

I do have visions of this. Yes, more data. We need more river gages, especially in places that we know where the water can rise so high, so quick. Research. We need more research on this, more that's funded into our modeling and to our understanding of how heavy rainfall events are changing in our warming planet. People do matter. We can do a whole lot with technology and hopefully it can keep us safer, but you still need that human component and trust that comes in. So when we are in this moment, you know to trust that call, you know, to trust, that warning, you know ,to trust that person who is reaching out to you.

'I mean, like we said, that's kind of the pie-in-the-sky scenario, but of course, we live in this world where there is a challenge with staffing, there's a challenge with data. You know, for example, the Department of Defense said it would cut off hurricane forecasters from key satellite data on July 31st, the end of this month. So whether or not, you know, these cuts and some of these challenges led to any of the increased death toll in Texas... As someone who is dedicated to helping the public understand climate change science and the impact, what do these cuts mean for the future of this work?

A lot of it's been well documented. It's not a good idea. It is going to make us less safe, less prepared. But the other piece of that is we aren't in the same atmosphere and planet and world that we were in 20, 30 years ago. So when we get to levels of records nowadays, it's usually something that has never been experienced. That's why it's a record. And we keep pushing it further and further. Our infrastructure was designed for decades ago, not for the situation we're in now, not where we're going.

I was going to say, should the average person think about flash flood warnings as possible deadly catastrophic events just because of the world we live in, you know, where storms are getting supercharged? How should the person think how to interpret what information they're getting from officials?

It's a really good question and it really depends on the situation where, when and how. So let's get to the flash flooding example because I mean, there's a few of these that have happened over the past few years around the country. I come back to Hurricane Ida too when that made landfall along the Gulf Coast, when it moved up through Tennessee and the Northeast, there were even more deaths from flooding. And again, this is where, how we communicate, what forms of communication, who hears it from what sources. Really matters, and to your point of how we should interpret that, go beyond your app. Your app's only going to tell you so much. It might say rain or it may trigger a warning, and that's where a lot of people are getting their weather information nowadays. But if you see something that's not normal popping up in your app, go deeper. Go to your local TV stations. Go to local national weather service offices. This is where people can empower themselves. It doesn't mean you should just freak out. It means you should inform yourself and try and understand the situation. And again, the forecast is one huge component of this, but it's also on people to understand and keep asking questions and learning in the process so that if something happens and you don't get that warning, or if you're in a new community on vacation and it's a type of weather event you're not used to, you at least have the pieces of the puzzle to try and to understand more to keep you, yourself, your family safe.

Well, Bernadette Woods Placky, thank you so much for talking to me. I appreciate it.

Well, thanks for having me and having this discussion.

Before we go, if you want to learn more about how you can help flood victims in Texas, head over to cnn.com slash impact. There's a lot of information there and a link to donate directly. Again, that's cnn dot com slash impact, or you can text FLOOD to 7070 70. that's FLOOD to 707070. One Thing is a CNN podcast production. This episode was hosted and produced by me, David Rind. Our show runner is Felicia Patinkin. Matt Dempsey is our production manager. Dan Gisula is our technical director and Steve Ligtai is the executive producer of CNN podcasts. We get support from Alex Manassari, Mark Duffy, Robert Mathers, John Deonora, Lainey Steinhardt, James Andres, Nicole Pasaru and Lisa Namarow. Special thanks to Angela Fritz, Marybel Gonzalez and Wendy Brundage. We'll be back on Sunday. I'll talk to you then.