Here's the latest
• Record-shattering Isaias has strengthened into a Category 3 “major hurricane”. Concern is growing for a stronger landfall on the northern Gulf Coast this evening.
• Widespread power outages are expected, and up to 9 feet of storm surge and up to 15 inches of rain is possible at the coast, with tornadoes popping up with little notice.
• States of emergency have been issued in parts of Alabama, Florida and Georgia, and mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for several coastal counties.
• Some Florida airports are scheduled to close ahead of the storm. Amtrak services in parts of Louisiana and Alabama are also disrupted.
Hurricane Isaias is expected to strengthen significantly over Thursday and Friday. Even if it weakens slightly before landfall, the storm will remain dangerous along the Gulf Coast.
Hurricane Isaias is due to make landfall late Friday night into Saturday as a strong Category two storm. A state of emergency has been declared across Florida and Alabama.
Meteorologist Ali Van Fleet explains how a weakening hurricane can still grow in size and threaten a broader region with rain, storm surge and even tornadoes.
All hurricanes are dangerous, but their impacts aren't always created equal. Meteorologist Chris Warren explains how storm size and storm strength influence the impacts communities experience before, during and after landfall.
To help people prepare for hurricanes, scientists studied 40 tropical cyclones and found storm surge hits in eight ways.
The competing influences on Isaias' intensity
El Niño and climate change, along with the configuration of ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, have been exerting competing influences on Hurricane Isaias as it heads for the northeastern Gulf Coast.
A near record-strong El Niño has likely contributed to the strong winds blowing at upper levels of the atmosphere across the Gulf, which has acted to limit Isaias’ intensification at times.
Simultaneously, the waters of the Gulf of Mexico are near record warm for this time of year, in part because of human-caused climate change. This has been providing the storm with plenty of fuel to steadily intensify for the past few days.
What’s more, overnight and into this morning, the storm has been moving over an eddy that is part of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current. This current transports large volumes of extremely warm water from the Gulf and out into the Atlantic Ocean as part of the Gulf Stream. Isaias coalesced into a Category 3 major hurricane when it encountered this patch of ultra-warm water.
As the storm nears land it will encounter more wind shear and cooler waters, which should cause it to weaken some before landfall.
Storm surge expected “all the way to the very end of the Florida Panhandle,” DeSantis says
As Hurricane Isaias continues its track toward the Florida Panhandle, Gov. Ron DeSantis warned residents about expected significant storm surge and power outages.
Storm surge of 5 to 7 feet is expected along parts of the Florida Panhandle and surge is expected “all the way to the very end of the Florida Panhandle,” DeSantis said.
“Because the storm is so lopsided, it’s got a lot of stuff on the east,” the governor explained.
Those in mandatory evacuation zones, the governor said, should heed those orders due to the expected storm surge. “You can evacuate tens of miles,” he said. “It’s certainly not necessary to have to drive hundreds of miles to be able to be safe.”
Residents should also expect to lose power, the governor said. However, 16,000 linemen and other associated personnel have already been mobilized and are “ready to go for quick power restoration,” DeSantis added.
Nearly $72 billion in commercial property could be damaged in hurricane, analysis says
An estimated $71.8 billion worth of commercial properties in Alabama, Florida and Mississippi face potential damage from Hurricane Isaias’ high winds, according to a Moody’s Analytics analysis released Friday morning.
The research arm of the global ratings firm mapped out 31,659 commercial buildings that have a greater than 50% probability of facing winds of at least 50 miles per hour, a threshold considered dangerous and damaging.
Nearly half of those buildings are multi-family residential properties, but retail buildings are also heavily exposed. Properties in Mobile, Alabama; Pensacola, Florida and Biloxi, Mississippi are facing some of the greatest risk.
“While these projections do not predict the losses or damages Isaias will ultimately cause, they do provide an initial sense of the scope of the commercial real estate value in the storm’s path,” Moody’s Analytics noted.
See the sun rise over powerful Isaias
Isaias strengthened to Category 3 major hurricane status right around sunrise Friday morning.
The hurricane’s eye is easiest to spot in the moments before the sun washes over the storm in the loop above, but the eye hasn’t actually disappeared in the daylight. It’s still there, but has gotten very small and compact recently.
Isaias is a Category 3. How strong could it get now?
A record-warm Gulf is fueling Isaias, giving it the strength to defy the storm-disrupting winds in the atmosphere that have been attacking it since it first formed.
Fueled by extremely warm water, Isaias has started to protect its center — shielding itself from the harsh upper-level winds — allowing it to reach the Category 3 major hurricane threshold.
The hurricane has winds of 120 mph currently. The Category 4 designation starts with winds of 130 mph, so if Isaias strengthens further in the next few hours it could flirt with that higher category.
Storm surge forecast increases for Florida
Up to 9 feet of storm surge is now possible along western portions of the Florida Panhandle. Previous forecasts indicated 7 feet of surge would be the maximum, but now Isaias is expected to be stronger at landfall, which could also occur around high tide. That would be a worst-case scenario.
Reminder: Storm surge is how far a hurricane’s winds push water levels above normal.
Isaias becomes a major hurricane over the Gulf
Isaias has strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph, according to a special update from the National Hurricane Center moments ago. That makes it a major hurricane, a designation reserved for storms rated Category 3 or higher.
Isaias is the first major hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Melissa last October.
Increasing wind shear, which can disrupt a hurricane’s structure, is expected to weaken Isaias slightly before landfall late tonight, but the storm will remain dangerous hurricane, potentially as strong as a high-end Category 2. Life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds and over 12 inches of flooding rain are all expected along the Gulf Coast.
Isaias to mark the first US hurricane landfall in 2 years
Isaias is forecast to be a potent hurricane when it comes ashore Friday night near the Florida-Alabama border. When it makes landfall, it will be the first time a hurricane has struck any US coastline in two years.
The last was Hurricane Milton. Milton made landfall on the west coast of Florida on October 9, 2024, as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds.
If Isaias makes landfall before midnight — as it’s currently forecast to — it will be exactly two years between hurricane hits.
Isaias could soon hit major hurricane status
Isaias remains a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 110 mph as of the 7 a.m. CT update from the National Hurricane Center, but a Hurricane Hunter airplane flying through the storm is finding signs it’s still intensifying.
The center noted that Isaias is “on the cusp of major hurricane strength,” which starts at 111 mph. That could happen within the next hour or so.
The Hurricane Hunters found dropping pressure at Isaias’ center, which indicates strengthening, so they could soon measure the typical bump in wind speeds that follows.
Airports closing, flights canceled in Florida
Pensacola International Airport’s terminal will close to commercial operations at 11AM ET Friday, ahead of Isaias. Passengers are being told to contact their airlines directly to reschedule.
It follows the closure of Destin-Fort Walton Beach Airport at 10 PM ET Thursday.
More than 150 flights in or out of the two airports have been canceled, according to FlightAware. This makes up the majority of the more than 290 flights canceled nationwide on Friday as of 8:30AM ET.
Mandatory evacuation orders issued as Isaias tracks toward the coast
Evacuation orders have been issued for a number of counties along the Gulf Coast in both Alabama and Florida as Isaias, which has strengthened into a strong Category 2 hurricane, continues to track toward the coast.
Four counties along Florida’s panhandle have issued mandatory evacuation orders, including Escambia County, which includes Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach and other low-lying areas. Three other Florida counties have issued voluntary evacuation orders, according to the state’s evacuation map.
In Alabama, Governor Kay Ivey announced Thursday the mandatory and immediate evacuation of coastal tourists, visitors and non-residents in Baldwin County south of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, including the cities of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, and on Dauphin Island in Mobile County.
Isaias' winds will arrive on the Gulf Coast soon
Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph+) will reach the southeastern coast of Louisiana shortly after sunrise. A tropical storm-force gust of 69 mph was already reported about 70 miles off the coast.
Coastal portions of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle will start to experience tropical storm-force winds early Friday afternoon. Inland areas will feel these winds by late afternoon or early evening.
Hurricane-force winds (74 mph+) will arrive as early as late Friday afternoon for parts of the Florida panhandle and coastal Alabama as Isaias starts to close in on the coast. Winds will increase drastically just before Isaias’ landfall Friday night and persist for several hours after.
Wind speeds will be strongest east of Isaias’ center.
Rain from Isaias has already reached Florida
Storm-disrupting winds in the atmosphere are blowing Isaias’ rain well north of the hurricane’s center Friday morning.
It’s raining steadily in parts of the Florida Panhandle, especially around Apalachicola. Light rain is starting to make it into southern Georgia as well.
Rain will get heavier and expand farther north in the coming hours as Isaias continues to track toward the coast.
Here's what Isaias looks like from space early this morning
The center of Hurricane Isaias is swirling in the open Gulf this morning as it continues its march toward the Gulf Coast.
It developed an eye — a sign of a strong hurricane — late Thursday, which has mostly stayed intact. But it doesn’t quite look like a typical high-end Category 2 hurricane this morning to me.
Most of its rain and storms are pushed north and east of its swirling center due to storm-disrupting winds in the atmosphere. Isaias has been battling that on and off since it first formed earlier this week.
Even though it’s a powerful hurricane, those winds have kept it from becoming more explosive.
Concern is growing for a stronger Isaias at landfall
The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center is painting a more serious picture of Isaias’ landfall Friday night.
The storm could now come ashore as a high-end Category 2 hurricane, or near Category 3 strength. Earlier forecasts showed a landfall in the Category 1 to lower-end Category 2 range.
This would tick up the severity of impacts at landfall: If Isaias is stronger, it will pack more destructive winds and push more storm surge on land.
The next 12 hours are crucial because Isaias is still strengthening, but will be confronted by storm-disrupting winds in the atmosphere. If those winds kick in later than expected, Isaias’s strength will remain unchecked for longer, resulting in a stronger landfall.
Isaias is now a high-end Category 2 hurricane
Isaias is strengthening again and its sustained winds are now at 110 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 4 a.m. CT update.
Category 2 hurricanes have wind speeds between 96 and 110 mph, so Isaias is now on the brink of Category 3 major hurricane territory.
It’s forecast to hit that threshold sometime this morning, likely in the next few hours. Isaias will be the first major hurricane (Category 3-plus) in the Atlantic since last October’s Hurricane Melissa.
NWS Mobile warns of power outages and 'multiple hours' of life-threatening storm surge
Isaias could damage mobile homes, cause considerable roof damage and topple large trees, leaving roads impassable and triggering widespread power outages, the National Weather Service office in Mobile warns.
Along the western Florida Panhandle, life-threatening storm surge could cause structures and roads along the coast to become inundated for multiple hours.
Wind impacts are expected late this afternoon into tonight. The storm is moving quickly, so the good news is that conditions should improve by Saturday morning.
Don't sleep on Isaias' flood threat
Wind speeds get all of the headlines because they determine a hurricane’s category, but don’t discount the water threat. Flooding rain and storm surge combine to cause about two-thirds of deaths in the US from Atlantic tropical cyclones, according to NOAA.
Isaias could push water 5 to 7 feet above normally dry ground from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to Indian Pass, Florida, if peak surge coincides with high tide.
Heavy rain will bring flood danger well inland as well. Four to 8 inches of rain are forecast from southern Alabama through southwestern Georgia, including the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, where 15 inches of rain could pile up in isolated spots.
Couple says weekend wedding will go ahead despite Isaias threat
As Hurricane Isaias threatens Florida’s Gulf Coast, one couple said they’re getting married in Pensacola this weekend, “no matter what.”
“We’re going to make it happen,” groom Jeff Ackerman told CNN’s Rafael Romo on Thursday, adding the ceremony could take place “in a backyard” or “a parking lot” if necessary.
Bride Cassy Cooper said they had planned a beach wedding in Pensacola, but the storm has already forced last-minute changes. “It still could be canceled and we don’t really have a backup plan for that,” she said.
Despite the uncertainty, the couple said family and friends have still made the trip to attend the wedding. “All that matters is that we’re getting married,” Cooper said.
