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• Taking the stage: President Donald Trump will give the keynote speech tonight at the first-ever Republican midterm convention in Dallas, which Republican National Committee chair Joe Gruters has called a “Trump-a-palooza.”
• Mixed sentiment: Trump this afternoon shrugged off concerns about Republicans skipping the event, claiming there isn’t room for everyone. Privately, some Republicans are questioning whether the gathering strikes the right tone and if it’s helpful to divert candidates from their districts this close to the election or to appear with Trump, whose approval rating stands at 35%, according to CNN’s poll of polls.
• What’s at stake: The convention’s programming will look to highlight Republicans’ accomplishments under Trump while also hammering Democrats just as Americans begin to tune into the midterm contests in earnest.
Democrats are targeting seats in red states in November
From the suburbs of Philadelphia to California’s Central Valley, Democrats hope that they can not only flip the House but also capture the majority in the Senate by running strong campaigns in GOP territory.
If successful, Democrats would both provide a consequential check on President Donald Trump for his final two years in office and begin to repair their party’s tattered brand as they prepare for the next presidential election.
Trump’s emergence as a main character in the midterms, despite his unpopularity across the country, has excited Democrats and left Republicans in competitive districts weighing how closely to tie themselves to him.
For Democrats, the strategy for the midterms is simple: speak to the mounting economic frustrations of voters, including those who took a chance on Trump in 2024 but now feel betrayed.
Republicans acknowledge they face historical headwinds as the party in power two years after winning the White House and capturing unified control of Washington. And Trump has not helped by starting a war with Iran that has exacerbated a cost-of-living crisis that was already on the top of voters’ minds.
They hope their midterm convention will help energize voters to turn out to the polls in November, even without Trump on the ballot.
CNN’s Dana Bash spoke with the Democratic candidate for Texas governor Gina Hinojosa about the GOP convention.
Iran war will end after midterms and gas prices will fall, Trump says
President Donald Trump said today that he expects Iran will abandon its war effort after the US midterm elections — and he conceded American gas prices are unlikely to fall before then.
Speaking to reporters on his way to the GOP convention in Dallas, Trump asserted that Iran would continue the war into November in an effort to damage him politically.
Trump’s remarks come as the global benchmark oil price has topped $100 a barrel once again, driven by stepped-up fighting in Iran in recent days that has further jeopardized the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz.
The surge in oil prices is likely to further increase fuel costs in the US, which have emerged as a key economic pain point ahead of the midterms.
Trump has repeatedly insisted that oil prices will fall precipitously once the war is over, dismissing concerns about the political impact by insisting that Americans are supportive of the broader offensive against Iran.
Trump downplays convention absences: "Everybody wants to come"
President Donald Trump shrugged off concerns about Republicans skipping his midterm convention, claiming there isn’t room for everyone even as some candidates locked in tight races are opting out.
“Everybody wants to come,” Trump said Wednesday as he prepared to fly to Texas.
Privately, some Republicans are questioning whether the gathering strikes the right tone and whether it’s helpful to divert candidates from their districts this close to the election or to appear with Trump, whose approval rating stands at 35%, according to CNN’s poll of polls.
“The reason that some people are not coming is because we don’t have room for 500 politicians. We have room for the ones that have a close race if they’re slightly behind or slightly ahead or tied,” Trump told reporters.
“But we don’t have room for people that are 35 points up and don’t need to be there. We said, ‘Stay back and campaign.’ Every politician that we’ve wanted to be there is there,” he added.
Some Republicans in battleground districts are planning to attend, including Reps. Mike Lawler of New York, Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, Monica De La Cruz of Texas and Ryan Mackenzie and Rob Bresnahan of Pennsylvania. And five Senate candidates in competitive races will be on hand: Ohio Sen. Jon Husted, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Georgia Rep. Mike Collins, former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers and former RNC Chair Michael Whatley in North Carolina.
But some House members and Senate candidates in tight races are skipping the event or not speaking.
CNN’s David Wright contributed to this post.
How to assess the credibility of midterm polling as we get into final stretch
With the GOP midterm convention about to get underway, kicking off the final stretch before Election Day, we are preparing for an onslaught of polling — and while it’s easier than ever to conduct a survey, it’s as difficult as ever to get it right.
At CNN, we ask pollsters to answer more than a dozen questions about their work before we cover it, from revealing who paid for the poll to sharing the technical details of their sampling and weighting.
Even if you’re not an expert on methodology, there are a few things you can look for to get a sense of whether a poll is worth your time — and to get the most information out of its results.
Here’s are some key things to look out for:
Transparency about the poll: Look for pollsters who are transparent about what they’re doing. If there aren’t many details available about who conducted and sponsored the poll, how they carried it out or what questions they asked, that’s your first sign to be skeptical.
Consider the survey’s sample: Fundamentally, polls work by talking to relatively small groups of people who are selected to be demographically representative of a much larger universe (say, “adults in the US,” or “people who are likely to vote in the next election”). Pay attention to how pollsters selected individuals to take the survey. Feel free to ignore “polls” that let anyone answer, which can’t reflect the opinions of anybody beyond those who happened to answer. When looking at the sample size of a poll, keep in mind that a relatively small but representative sample is better than a very large, unrepresentative one.
What questions did the poll ask? The way a poll question is framed can have major impacts on the results of the poll, particularly around unfamiliar candidates or complicated topics — so can the order that questions were asked in. Look for polls that share the exact wording of their questions, so that you can evaluate whether those questions seem balanced and get the clearest sense possible of what the people taking the survey actually meant by their answers.
Expect Republicans in battleground races to take the stage tonight
The Republican midterm convention tonight will feature speaking slots for a series of 2026 candidates from safe red seats to the most competitive battleground races.
It’s a calculated risk for the battleground contenders, who could benefit from national exposure, presidential favor, and fundraising support, but risk alienating swing voters by appearing at what Republicans are calling a “Trump-a-palooza.”
But, a handful of House members facing tough reelection campaigns and several of the party’s nominees in key Senate races will not be there.
Why some GOP lawmakers say they won't be at the convention this week
As the two-day extravaganza approached, some Republicans were privately questioning if the GOP midterm convention struck the right tone amid the electorate’s tightening budgets — and the wisdom of diverting candidates from their districts just weeks out from Election Day.
There’s also an overarching fear that an event once dubbed “Trumpapalooza” will indeed end up being far more about promoting the president than the candidates who are actually on the ballot.
Some Republican lawmakers said last week they do not plan to attend the convention as campaign season to defend their razor-thin House majority heats up.
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar told CNN’s Manu Raju that she won’t attend because she has “events” at home.
“I would love to go. I was thinking about it. I’m going to miss out on something important, but I can’t be in two places at the same time,” the Florida Republican said, later saying “of course” she would campaign in her district with President Donald Trump.
“I’m planning to be in my district,” said Rep. Tom Barrett, who holds one of the most competitive seats in Michigan.
Republicans aim to use convention to rally midterm voters
The midterm elections are quickly approaching and a lot is at stake for Republicans as they seek to defend their narrow majority in Congress.
Without President Donald Trump on the ballot and polls showing deep dissatisfaction with the country’s trajectory, GOP leaders worry it will be even more difficult to get the broad MAGA coalition that came out in 2024 to show up again.
So to get the base energized, Trump and his political team conceived of the Republican midterm convention last year as a fresh way to engage those GOP voters and convince them to head to the ballot box. The multiday event organized by the Republican National Committee also offers candidates an opportunity to showcase themselves on a national stage and juice their fundraising.
Building off the convention, Trump has promised to spend the final 30 days of the election crisscrossing the country, targeting 35 races that he believes will determine control of Congress.
Importance of timing: The RNC slotted the event near the very end of primary season and before early voting begins in most states, in hopes of getting its message across just as Americans begin to tune into the midterm contests in earnest.
