Scribble

David Rind

00:00:00

'This is One Thing, I'm David Rind, and what's the cost of coming here the quote-unquote right way?

Aizada Marat

00:00:06

You know what actually confuses me? I thought the agenda of the current administration was about combating illegal immigration.

David Rind

00:00:15

Stick with us. When I'm flying, my blood pressure usually goes up a tick when I hear the pilot's voice come over the loudspeaker. I'm usually thinking, what kind of delay or technical problem is about to make this trip even more annoying?

Flight Video

00:00:33

What is he saying?

David Rind

00:00:36

'Well, on September 19, passengers aboard a Dubai-bound Emirates flight about to take off from San Francisco were already plenty stressed by the time the pilot got on the horn.

Pilot

00:00:46

Ladies and gentlemen, the cabin speaking due to the current circumstances, obviously, that are unprecedented for us here at Emirates.

David Rind

00:00:54

'Just a few hours earlier, President Donald Trump had announced a major change to the H-1B visa program, which allows companies to sponsor highly skilled workers from overseas for up to three years, and they can be renewed for another three after that.

Danny Freeman

00:01:08

'President Trump signed an executive action on Friday, which would impose an $100,000 application fee for H-1B visas. Now, if it survives legal challenges, the fee would be a steep increase from current base filing fees of a few hundred dollars.

David Rind

00:01:24

This change came without warning, and a lot of people on this plane, particularly those from India, weren't sure if they would be allowed back into the U.S. If they left.

Pilot

00:01:32

We are aware that's enough for passengers to know we should travel with us, and that's totally fine.

David Rind

00:01:38

The person who filmed the whole thing said it was chaos. The plane was stuck in the tarmac for three hours. Some people did end up getting off. Eventually, the Trump administration clarified things a bit. This would only apply to new applications, but it just underscores how Trump's maximalist immigration agenda can leave even those here legally in the lurch.

Gabriella

00:01:59

We have to talk.

David Rind

00:02:00

One of those people is Gabriella. She asks we only use her first name due to privacy concerns. She's from Indonesia, but works in the U.S.

Gabriella's Tik Tok

00:02:08

I work in international affairs. I work at a nonprofit. I'm doing this job because I'm skilled in a foreign language. As I was born and raised in that country, I know...

Gabriella

00:02:18

I posted a TikTok just like to rant about everything that was going on.

Gabriella's Tik Tok

00:02:22

I just don't feel appreciated.

Gabriella

00:02:24

And I had some people comment down below saying, for example, like, people from this country take our jobs. People from that country take our job. Like, it just seems kind of scary.

David Rind

00:02:36

How does that make you feel to see comments like that, that are, you know, accusing you of stealing American jobs?

Gabriella

00:02:43

'Yeah, it's definitely sad. There's definitely a lot of misunderstanding between that because there are so many important industries in the United States which need foreign workers. Like, at the nonprofit that I'm working, I work in, like, U.S.-Indonesia relations. So to have someone from Indonesia on your team who's fluent in the language, who knows how to communicate to the right stakeholders, knows how to negotiate, I think is important.

David Rind

00:03:11

Gabriella says she's sticking around as long as her employer sponsors her visa. But experts say this new proposal could spark a talent exodus from the U.S. In some crucial industries like tech and medicine. Tell me about your experience with the U S immigration system.

Aizada Marat

00:03:27

Yeah, my experience with U.S. Immigration system hasn't been the best one.

David Rind

00:03:35

This is Izada Murat. She grew up in Kyrgyzstan. Izada first came to the U.S. In 2005 when she was 17 through an exchange program sponsored by the State Department. After finishing high school, she returned to Kyrzykstan to work on her undergraduate law degree, but the U S was where she really wanted to be.

Aizada Marat

00:03:52

I really wanted to build my future in the United States because for me, this was a country of opportunities. For me, this is, I still believe in American dream and the American dream essentially translates into so long as you work hard, so long as you're smart, this country is based on the merit. So you can succeed regardless where you come from.

David Rind

00:04:17

The chance to return presented itself in the form of a one year master's program at Harvard Law School. After finishing that, Izada was ready to enter the workforce in the U S, but she couldn't get a work visa. So she had to leave the U.S. Again and spent two years in London.

Aizada Marat

00:04:31

But then life just took an interesting turn. And then I got married and my husband got admitted into Stanford Business School. So we made it to California.

David Rind

00:04:41

Her husband was a green card holder, so she thought her immigration troubles were finally over. She says things took another turn after she got some bad advice from an immigration attorney.

Aizada Marat

00:04:53

I could not work for one and a half years and I got stuck inside of the U.S. I couldn't travel. I missed so many life events of family, friends, relatives. I missed weddings. I missed funerals. I just couldn't leave the United States because if I left, that would mean that I abandoned my green card application. So I was just stuck and I started Alma in 2023 trying to solve this problem.

David Rind

00:05:19

'Alma is a tech-based immigration legal services firm, which helps companies and individuals work through the thorny maze of visa requirements and changes like this new H-1B proposal from President Trump. So explain this to me for folks who don't know what is an H-1B visa.

Aizada Marat

00:05:38

'H-1B visa is a temporary visa and in order to get this H- 1B visa, first you need to be sponsored by a company. Second, the company needs to enter you into a lottery. And then the lottery distinguishes those who have advanced degrees and who don't have advanced degree. People with advanced degrees, masters and PhDs have higher likelihood of winning in the lottery.

David Rind

00:06:00

'Just because you apply for an H-1B doesn't mean you're going to get it.

Aizada Marat

00:06:03

'Doesn't mean you're going to get it. And then within the H-1B lottery system, there are different wages. So there are four levels and depending on the years of experience, on your education, whatnot, you fall out and based on the salary, you fall under different wage categories. And the new rule also now that has been announced is that it's not a rule yet, it's a proposed rule. But ultimately, they're saying that like people based on their wages, they have different chances of winning the lottery. So ultimately, the higher your salary is, the higher chances of you winning a lottery.

David Rind

00:06:38

So up until this point, everybody basically had the same chance of being selected for the lottery. But now the companies that are willing to pay higher wages are more likely to have that applicant selected. Do I have that right?

President Donald Trump

00:06:55

We need workers. We need great workers. And this pretty much ensures that that's what's going to happen. I think, Sean, you agree with that?

Howard Lutnick

00:07:02

'Well, they're $100,000 per year. So the whole idea is no more with these big tech companies or other big companies. Train foreign workers. They have to pay the government $100,000. Then they have to paid the employee. So it's just non-economic. If you're going to train somebody, you're gonna train one of the recent graduates from one of great universities across our land. Train Americans. Stop bringing in people to take our jobs.

David Rind

00:07:35

And tell me about what else is changing here because there's this $100,000 application fee that hadn't been there before.

Aizada Marat

00:07:44

And there are a lot of questions because it is not clear whether that $100,000 follows an individual or the company. So if the company pays on behalf of an individual, is individual sorted out for life because you can move your H1B from one employer to another or this actually follows the employer. So once they pay for it, that it's some sort of like it's reserved after them or what happens or do they continue paying additional $100 every time they hire new employees? There's a lot of. Like right now, so I'm sure they will clarify it. But for now, the rule is that $100,000 you need to pay for your application to be processed. And what's it going to turn into is, you know, brain drain potentially for the United States.

David Rind

00:08:30

Got to take a quick break, but we'll be right back. That's what I wanted to ask. Are you hearing from people who are like, the US is just not feasible with this new kind of system and I might have to go elsewhere to find work, even if it's remote work that an American company might be utilizing to get around some of this.

Aizada Marat

00:08:55

'Yes, a hundred percent. I'm sure more companies will look into like EOR where you can, you know, just have employee outside of the US. But interestingly, there's been a strong trend of moving everyone back to the office, return to the officer policy for major tech companies. So I'm not sure how they're going to deal with this if people actually now to remote locations, right? That's one, but just think about all the taxes that. US is going to lose because all of these people who are on H-1B visas, they're subject to social security and other taxes that they're paying, right? So they're going to loose a lot of people who are paying taxes already because I think they were supposed, when you know what actually confuses me, I thought the agenda of the current administration was about combating illegal immigration. Closing the hole in the southern border and addressing that issue first and how surprised I was when they started targeting highly skilled immigration first, which is so interesting, it's counterintuitive.

David Rind

00:10:04

Yeah, you didn't think that the kind of folks that you work with were going to be targeted or restricted by this administration.

Aizada Marat

00:10:12

'100%, especially after Trump himself was talking about, oh, like let's give all the graduates of top universities work visas, right? And now it's just the opposite of it. And Elon Musk and all the other supporters of Trump, they all have so many people on H-1B visas. Right now, it's like Satya Nadella, Jensen Huang, there's so many immigrants in this country and they've contributed. This proportionately to this country, it might be something populistic. They're just trying to rally their supporters. But remember, the biggest issue was illegal immigration, not highly skilled immigration.

David Rind

00:10:51

But I think the argument from the administration is that the process has been abused in the past and that it's undercut American wages and that this new weighted process that we talked about will incentivize companies to pay the highest salaries. And what's wrong with that?

Aizada Marat

00:11:09

When they're saying we're undercutting Americans, I did not see a lot of Americans, first of all, entering into STEM professions after they graduate from high school, right? There is a question of demand and supply. When you're saying, so there's a lot demand from tech companies, but are you saying there's enough supply from locals? I don't think so.

David Rind

00:11:32

Are you saying there's just not enough Americans to do this kind of work?

Aizada Marat

00:11:35

'Exactly, because there is not enough data that suggests that for the past couple of years, there were so many American graduates of high schools entering into STEM professions and then being unemployed because they cannot compete with immigrants. Is there any data that suggests? No. Is there a lot of internal migration within the country where people from Midwest and some of the rural areas of America moving to tech hubs and not being able to find jobs? Is there any data that suggests that? I don't think so. We've looked into it. We tried to find data. And, or for example, when they're saying it's like, hey, like all of this, you know, like consulting Indian firms are gaming the system. We literally looked up the data. To our surprise, you know who's going to be affected by the wage-based lottery system? Tech giants, because they're the ones who hire a lot of wage one. Fresh grads of universities and enter them into H1B visas. So my concern is that like how all of these tech companies are going to fill in the demand that they have, because I'm not seeing a lot of locals applying for the jobs.

David Rind

00:12:44

'Well, so you talk about these big tech firms and some of the reaction from them has been interesting because like Reed Hastings, the chairman and co-founder of Netflix, he said he's all for this change. But of course Netflix has, you know, 14,000 employees and made more than $11 billion in revenue last quarter. But then there's startups like yours who may not have the $100,000 to put up. Do you use H1B visas to hire folks?

Aizada Marat

00:13:14

'We do. And that's the big issue for a lot of startups. We won't be able to afford hiring people on H1B visa going forward if we have to pay $100,000 for every single application that we file. And of course it is easy to be Reed Hastings. He's just forgetting that Netflix was a startup many years ago and now of course it's a huge company that can afford it. But of course, it is eliminating competition for him as well. First is like, okay, small companies cannot grow fast and compete with incumbents first. Second, he's just thinking about all the talent that he can get because you know what best talent does these days? They start companies. So he's not gonna lose on this talent because they won't be able to start their own company and hire engineers, sponsor their own visas. So the likelihood of them going to a big company is way higher. So this 100% benefits big companies, well-capitalized growing versus small companies. But. You just need to remember down the line you're gonna prevent a lot of Netflixes and open AIs from even happening.

David Rind

00:14:19

Even beyond this visa and immigration situation, there's still the broader political moment that we find ourselves in and the real tension that exists in the country. For example, we're talking on Wednesday a detainee was killed during a shooting at an ICE facility in Texas. The murder of Charlie Kirk has a lot of people on edge. So I guess I'm just wondering, are the people you talk to overseas still genuinely excited about the possibility of coming to work in the US?

Aizada Marat

00:14:48

That's a great question. If anything, there are just a lot of changes happening in this country that to some extent, it's so hard to even process it because no one expected these changes. And what I can see as an immigrant, this is very upsetting because all the countries in the world would look up to the US as the democratic country, right? Because if you think about the AI race and competition of AI versus China, ultimately everyone would want US to win, not China, right? But then with the current regime and all this uncertainty, it's like the future is just becoming scarier. A lot of people, a lot of immigrants as well, we just have a propensity to start, I guess, businesses because for us, it's America is the land of opportunities and we need to grab the opportunities this country offers. So a lot people start their companies once they figure out their visa situation, right. So a lot of people might be just on the fence and thinking, I'm just gonna prefer stability at my big company because I know they can sort out my visa situation versus I go on my own solo and start a company and face this visa uncertainty.

David Rind

00:16:05

You're saying the stability is the first step to innovation in a lot of senses and if the administration wants to encourage that innovation to happen here, there needs to be stability, but this program takes that away.

Aizada Marat

00:16:18

And right now, if anything, as an immigrant and outside in perspective, it is just scary.

David Rind

00:16:26

Well, Izada, thank you so much for the time. I really appreciate it.

Aizada Marat

00:16:29

Thank you, David.

David Rind

00:16:33

'In a separate announcement, Trump also rolled out a so-called gold card visa for wealthy foreigners, which critics have called the leadest and exclusionary. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says a million bucks will get someone a fast track visa or a company can sponsor a worker for $2 million.

Howard Lutnick

00:16:51

We're going to only take extraordinary people at the very top. Instead of people trying to take the jobs from Americans, they're going create businesses and create jobs for Americans.

David Rind

00:17:03

That's it for us. We're back on Wednesday. As a reminder, leave us a rating and a review wherever you listen. It helps other people find us. Thank you for listening.

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