Democrats are projected to win in four key states
Of the six key states, two have flipped between parties. Former Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs — who rose to national prominence in 2020 when she oversaw the state’s election — is projected to defeat 2020 election denier Kari Lake, flipping Arizona for Democrats. Joe Lambardo flipped Nevada for Republicans.
Incumbents have won reelection and expanded their margins since 2018 in three states — Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Democrat Josh Shapiro is projected to win in Pennsylvania by a slightly smaller margin than outgoing Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf did in 2018. Shapiro is projected to win against Doug Mastriano, a Trump-endorsed 2020 election denier, by 14 points.
Arrows represent percentage point change in vote margin since the gubernatorial race in 2018
Democrats are projected to win 18 states so far — though margins in 25 states shifted toward Republicans since 2018
Democrats have eaten into Republicans’ stronghold at the state level with three of four flips and will win 18 of the 35 gubernatorial races, CNN has projected. Nationwide, Republicans will govern 26 states and Democrats 24, according to CNN projections. Republicans led 28 states before the election.
Overall, the margins of victory in 11 races shifted toward Democrats compared with 2018 results and 25 races moved toward Republicans, according to a CNN analysis of election results as of Nov. 23.
The 2022 midterms have been a good year for incumbent governors. Of the 36 states electing a governor in November, incumbents were running for reelection in 27 states — and all 27 are projected to win another term.
Compared with their state’s votes in 2018, all but seven of those incumbent governors projected to win reelection have also expanded their margins, winning over more support from voters than they did four years ago. Incumbent Republican governors expanded their margins of victory in 14 states. Democratic incumbents expanded their margins in six states.
Explore how your county voted for governor
For each state, CNN visualizes how each county (or town, in New England states) voted for governor and how its votes shifted — either left toward Democrats or right toward Republicans — compared with 2018.
In Florida, for example, most counties are red, voting to reelect Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis over former Gov. Charlie Crist in 2022 — with DeSantis expanding his margin of victory in each of them. Each of the blue counties that voted for Crist, though, have also shifted toward Republicans by some degree — meaning that Crist won those counties by a smaller margin than Democrat Andrew Gillum did over DeSantis in 2018.
Direction and magnitude of swing since 2018
Projected winner's margin of victory in 2022
Data source: Edison Research
Note: Alaska is not shown because it switched to ranked choice voting since 2018.