The latest on the Ukraine-Russia border crisis

New satellite imagery from Maxar shows a substantial increase in the deployment of Russian helicopter forces close to the Ukrainian border.

Maxar assessed that a new helicopter unit and battle group deployment consisting of tanks, armored personnel carriers and support equipment have deployed to Millerovo airfield, situated 16 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. 

Millerovo is close to the part of Ukraine’s border that is controlled by pro-Russian separatists of the self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic.

Slightly further north, Maxar said that a new helicopter unit (more than 20 helicopters) has deployed near Valuyki, approximately 27 kilometers east of the border with Ukraine.

As seen in a previous imagery package, nearly 20 helicopters remain deployed near Belgorod, approximately 35 kilometers east of the border with Ukraine.

Videos uploaded to social media, and vetted by CNN, show that attack helicopters are present at both airfields near Valuyski and Belgorod, Russia.

In Crimea, there are now 70 helicopters, more than 60 were first observed earlier this week, at a disused airbase at Lake Donuzlav on the Black Sea coast remain in place.

The increase comes despite a statement earlier this week from the Russian Ministry of Defense saying that some military units would be moved away from Ukraine and return to their home bases. Russia even published videos of trains moving a number of tanks as evidence that it was following through on its statement.

In the past week a combination of satellite imagery and social media videos have shown advanced Russian tanks, howitzers and ballistic missiles moving towards the Ukrainian border, especially to the north and north-east.

And satellite imagery earlier this week showed troops, military vehicles and helicopters at the Zyabrovka airfield near the city of Gomel in Belarus, around 25 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podoliak has told CNN “it is impossible to say with certainty what exactly is going on in the thoughts of the Russian leader.”

Podoliak’s comments come on the heels of President Biden saying he’s convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine.

Podoliak went on to note that Biden’s stance is undoubtedly based on information from the intelligence community, saying that it’s “not a matter of agreeing or disagreeing with the statements.”

However, said Podoliak, “one should pay attention to the more important meaning in the words of President Biden: he confirmed that there is still a chance for diplomacy. And we will use this chance.”

Another senior Ukrainian official told CNN that Ukrainian President Zelensky is still planning to travel to Munich and return on the same day. But he did note that the “security situation will be reassessed in morning.”

While at the Munich Security Conference, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she met with Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, who “conveyed the urgent concerns of the innocent people of Kyiv under threat of a Russian invasion.”

The House Speaker said her Congressional delegation “reiterated America’s support for the people of Ukraine and opposition to Putin’s aggression.”

Pelosi said in a statement that the delegation, “has made and will continue to make clear: America remains unwavering in our commitment to swift, severe consequences if Russia chooses to invade Ukraine.”

“Under President Biden, the transatlantic alliance is stronger and more united — and we will continue to be together in our response,” the statement said.

You can read the House Speaker’s statement in its entirety here.

Nearly half of Russian forces surrounding Ukraine are in attack position, according to a US defense official familiar with the latest assessment. 

The number of battalion tactical groups has swelled to approximately 120-125. A battalion tactical group usually comprises 1,000 troops.

The official said the Russian military has continued to move forces toward the border, and within the last 48 hours, the number of forces in attack position has reached 40-50%.

At the same time, the Russian destabilization campaign has begun, the official said, with Russia accusing Ukraine of genocide in Donbas, conducting false flag operations, and more.

On Friday, a military vehicle exploded in the city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine near the Government House building, the headquarters of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic. 

An advisor to Ukraine’s Interior Minister, Anton Gerashchenko, called it a “staging and a provocation.”

Earlier Friday: The Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, two self-governed regions in eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists, organized the evacuation of civilians to Russia. 

Russia promised each refugee would receive 10,000 rubles (around $130) upon arrival in the Rostov region of the country.

US President Joe Biden on Friday said it is up to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky whether he will attend this weekend’s security conference in Germany.

“That’s a judgment for him to make,” Biden said when asked by reporters following remarks he gave on the current state of tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Biden added, “I’ve spoken with Zelensky a dozen times, maybe more, I don’t know. In the pursuit of a diplomatic solution it may — maybe be the wise choice. But it’s his decision.”

CNN has previously reported that Biden administration officials have privately urged Zelensky that they do not believe it is a good idea for him to leave Ukraine and visit Munich on Saturday.

US President Joe Biden said there has been an uptick in Russian disinformation that could be used as a pretext for an invasion into Ukraine.

Speaking at the White House, Biden said reports pushed to the Russian public that Ukraine is planning to launch an attack in separatist-controlled Donbas lacked evidence. He said those claims defied logic.

“This is also in line with the pretext scenario that the United States and our allies and partners have been warning about for weeks,” Biden went on.

He said the US had seen an uptick in violations of the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden says he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine. 

Biden previously stated he did not believe the Russian leader had made up his mind, but acknowledged his insights into Putin’s thinking were limited.

In previous appearances over the past month, Biden has suggested that Putin’s thinking was a mystery to almost everyone, indicating even top Russian advisers were in the dark as to his intentions.

Friday’s comments marked a significant shift in the President’s view, and a far more definitive stance on his counterpart’s plans.

After his initial answer, Biden was pressed again whether he was convinced Putin had determined to go ahead with an invasion. 

“Yes,” Biden said.

Asked if that precluded diplomacy to defuse the crisis, Biden said it did not.

“Diplomacy is always a possibility,” he said. 

And questioned as he was preparing to depart the Roosevelt Room why he believed “he is considering that option at all,” Biden said only, “We have a significant intelligence capability.”

US President Joe Biden once again warned Russia of possible consequences if an invasion of Ukraine occurred, but said “it is not too late to de-escalate and return to the negotiating table.”

“The bottom line is this. The United States and our allies and partners will support the Ukrainian people. We will hold Russia accountable for its actions. The West is united and resolved. We’re ready to impose severe sanctions on Russia if it further invades,” Biden said.

“Russia can still choose diplomacy. It is not too late to de-escalate and return to the negotiating table,” Biden said.

Biden noted that Russia agreed that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov should meet on February 24 in Europe.

“But if Russia takes military action before that date, it will be clear that they have slammed the door shut on diplomacy,” Biden warned.

“They will have chosen war and they will pay a steep price for doing so. Not only from the sanctions that we and our allies will impose on Russia, but the more outrage the rest of the world will visit upon them,” he continued.

President Biden said the US believes that Russian troops intend to attack Ukraine “in the coming week, the coming days.”

“We have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, the coming days,” the President said Friday speaking from the White House. “We believe that they will target Ukraine’s capital Kyiv — a city of 2.8 million innocent people.”

Biden went on to condemn such an attack, in the process pledging to continue supporting Ukraine.

“We’re calling out Russia’s plans loudly and repeatedly … we’re doing everything in our power to remove any reason Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine and prevent them from moving. Make no mistake: if Russia pursues its plans, it will be responsible for a catastrophic and needless war of choice,” Biden said.

“The United States and our allies are prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory from any threat to our collective security as well. We also will not send troops in to fight in Ukraine, but we will continue to support the Ukrainian people,” the President added.

US President Joe Biden addressed the flurry of misinformation Russia has been releasing as the threat of invasion hangs over Ukraine.

In remarks from the White House Friday afternoon, Biden said he’s “seen reports of a major uptick in violations of the ceasefire by Russian-backed fighters attempting to provoke Ukraine in the Donbas.”

“For example, a shelling of Ukrainian kindergarten yesterday which Russia has falsely asserted was carried out by Ukraine. We also continue to see more and more disinformation being pushed out to the Russian public, including Russian-backed separatists, claiming that Ukraine is planning to launch a massive offensive attack in the Donbas,” Biden said. “Look, there is no evidence [of] these assertions, and it defies basic logic to believe the Ukrainians would choose this moment, with well over 150,000 troops arrayed on its borders, to escalate a year-long conflict.”

Biden’s remarks follow reports from Ukrainian armed forces and separatists controlling parts of eastern Ukraine of shelling in the Donbas region on Thursday.

Video and images confirmed by CNN show that a kindergarten was hit by a shell.

US President Joe Biden is speaking now from the White House on the latest developments in the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, as his White House is now blaming Russian intelligence for a massive cyberattack on Ukraine.

The President last spoke about the crisis on Thursday as he departed the White House for a trip to Ohio, when he said there is “every indication” a Russian invasion of Ukraine “will happen in the next several days,” and the threat of an attack is “very high.”

Biden’s remarks come amid escalating tensions as US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Michael Carpenter warned earlier Friday that the US has assessed a significant Russian military buildup near Ukraine just in the last two weeks.

Before his remarks, Biden spoke with allies in North America and Europe. He will hold a phone call with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, the United Kingdom, the European Union and NATO to discuss the ongoing crisis.

Multiple US and western government officials tell CNN that the US has intelligence that Russia has drawn up lists of current political figures that it would target for removal in the event it invades Ukraine and topples the current government in Kyiv.

Sources familiar with the intelligence say the target lists are part of Russian planning to replace the current administration in Kyiv with a more Russia-friendly government, bolstering a previous disclosure by the British government identifying pro-Moscow figures it said Russia planned to install. 

The most likely outcome for those politicians and public figures whom Moscow has targeted to be ousted in the event Kyiv falls, these sources say, is jail or assassination. 

“We’ll see what kinds of choices these people will be given, but a lot of them will be jailed or killed,” said one source familiar with the intelligence. “I think for most it will depend on how cooperative these people are when the time comes and the circumstances in which they are captured or taken.”

“If it’s in public” — in front of cameras — “that’ll be different very different from somebody who they corner in the middle of nowhere,” this person added. 

CNN has not seen the underlying intelligence intercepts or the documents that name the targets or the purported collaborators and their supposed positions in a pro-Russia administration.

And for now, the threat remains contingent on invasion, even as Russia has massed between 169,000 and 190,000 personnel in and around Ukraine, including Russian-led forces in breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. 

American officials have continued to escalate warnings that Russia is prepared to launch an invasion in Ukraine in the coming days — including a full-scale march on Kyiv — but they caution that they don’t believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued the order yet. Putin’s exact plans remain stubbornly difficult to determine. Western intelligence officials have closely watched for signs that Russia has prepared a friendly government-in-waiting as a key indicator of its intentions. 

“As we’ve seen in the past, we expect Russia will try to force cooperation through intimidation and repression,” said a separate US official. “These acts, which in past Russian operations have included targeted killings, kidnappings/forced disappearances, detentions, and the use of torture, would likely target those who oppose Russian actions, including Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons.”

CNN has reached out to the Ukrainian government for comment. 

Foreign Policy first reported on the details of US intelligence on the Russian planning.  

US Vice President Kamala Harris met “several times” Friday with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to coordinate strategy, according to a senior administration official.

The official previewed Harris’ speech Saturday to the Munich Security Conference, telling pool reporters that, “you’ll see her speech fit into the message we’ve been sending from the start of this crisis, that we are prepared for either contingency.”

“We have been putting the world on notice of what we’re afraid of and seeing from the Russians, these provocations, that we fear that they could use as a pretext for invading Ukraine and the past hours or days, unfortunately, we have seen some of those,” the official added.

The official also laid out the core themes the VP will emphasize:

The official said Harris still plans to meet with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz following the speech, and will also conduct some “pull asides” with other leaders.

Zelensky is scheduled to attend the conference on Saturday for meetings, but the US has told Zelensky it is up to him whether to leave Ukraine this weekend to attend.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says there is now the biggest concentration of military force in Europe since the end of the Cold War.

“There can be no doubt that we have now the biggest concentration of military force in Europe since the end of the Cold War in Europe,” Stoltenberg told German broadcaster ZDF on Friday.

He said Russia has capabilities with forces and support elements in place and that it “can launch an attack with no warning time.” 

“We don’t know the intention, the plans of Russia,” he said.

Stoltenberg said there has been no sign of de-escalation from Russia and that “on the contrary, we have seen the buildup continues.”

A White House official warned of the sanctions Russia could face for an invasion of Ukraine, telling reporters Friday that the administration is in the process of “converging on the final package,” which contains “the most severe measures we’ve ever contemplated against Russia.”

“There’s no question in my mind that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is not playing the winning hand,” Daleep Singh, deputy national security advisor for international economics and deputy director of the National Economic Council, said during the White House news briefing.

Outlining what steps will be taken in the event of an invasion, Singh said that “the cost to Russia would be immense, both to its economy and his strategic position in the world.”

“Our financial sanctions have been designed to impose overwhelming and immediate costs to the largest financial institutions and state-owned enterprises in Russia. They’ve been calibrated to maximize alignment with our allies and partners. They’re flexible to allow for further escalation or de-escalation, depending on how Putin responds,” Singh said, adding that they’ll avoid targeting the Russian people or spill over into the US and global economy. “We’re also prepared to impose powerful export controls as part of our response package. Both financial sanctions and export controls deny something to Russia that it needs and can’t get from anywhere other than the United States or our allies and partners.” 

Russia would become “a pariah to the international community” if Ukraine is invaded, Singh said.

“It will become isolated from global financial markets, and it will be deprived of the most sophisticated technological inputs. Russia would face the prospect of intense capital outflows, mounting pressure on its currency, surging inflation, higher borrowing costs, economic contraction and the erosion of its productive capacity. Taken together, Russia will become more dependent on countries that cannot compensate for its losses. This would be a strategic defeat for Russia pure and simple,” he continued.

Singh told CNN that the measures being considered “are not designed to reduce or impair Russia’s ability to supply energy to the world.”

He added that the administration believes “it would be a strategic mistake for Putin to weaponize his energy supply.

Singh also warned that if China makes accommodations to Russia in the event of Western sanction, it would send “a very bad signal for its vision of the world” and would have a “profound” impact on its reputation with Europe.

The US has told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky it is up to him whether to leave Ukraine this weekend to attend a security conference in Germany.

Zelensky is scheduled to attend the Munich Security Conference on Saturday for meetings, including with US Vice President Kamala Harris. US officials have said a Russian invasion of Ukraine could occur at any moment.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki was asked whether any US officials had conveyed concern to Zelensky about leaving his country amid the current crisis. She declined to delve into details of “private diplomatic conversations.”

“It’s a decision that’s up to him to make,” she said. “That is what we convey privately as well. But regardless of what decision he makes, he will have the support of the United States.”

The US government said Friday that the Russian government is responsible for recent cyberattacks on Ukrainian banks this week as tensions in the region continue to escalate. 

“We believe that the Russian government is responsible for widescale cyber-attacks on Ukrainian banks this week. We have technical information that links the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU, as known GRU infrastructure was seen transmitting high volumes of communication to Ukraine based IP addresses and domains,” said Anne Neuberger, deputy national security advisor for cyber and emerging technology. 

This attribution was unusually fast for the US government, and Neuberger noted that Russia has previously benefitted from US delays in attributing Russian hacking operations. 

“Russia likes to move in the shadows and counts on a long process of attribution so it can continue its malicious behavior against Ukraine in cyberspace, including pre-positioning for its potential invasion,” Neuberger told reporters in the White House briefing room. 

Neuberger added that the US has shared the “underlying intelligence” with Ukraine and other European allies. She warned that these attacks could lay the groundwork for more aggressive attacks ahead of a ground invasion. 

“While of limited impact, this recent spate of cyberattacks in Ukraine are consistent with what a Russian effort could look like in laying the groundwork for more disruptive cyberattacks accompanying a potential further invasion of Ukraine sovereign territory,” Neuberger said. 

She added that the US has been preparing for this possibility since November and that the US government has “intensified” its support of the Ukrainian government. 

Neuberger added that they do not believe there are no specific or “credible” cyber threats to the US homeland, but that the government remains prepared and has been communicating with the private sector. 

Ahead of his remarks this afternoon, US President Biden will speak with allies in North America and Europe, according to the White House.

He will hold a phone call with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, the United Kingdom, the European Union and NATO to discuss the ongoing crisis. The call is closed to press.

Then, at 4 p.m. ET, Biden will give “an update on our continued efforts to pursue deterrence and diplomacy, and Russia’s buildup of military troops on the border of Ukraine,” the White House said.

The President on Friday also called in to a meeting US Vice President Kamala Harris was holding with members of Congress who are attending the Munich Security Conference in Germany, according to a person in the room, and reiterated the work the US and allies have been doing to try to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

He also updated the members on the situation at Ukraine’s borders.

Ukrainian officials say they expect Russia to be involved in “false flag” operations in the breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine in an effort to create a pretext to launch an invasion.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk had alleged Ukrainian forces would launch an offensive against them.

“All this is completely untrue,” he said, adding that this was an attempt at provocation. “There is a great danger that the representatives of the Russian Federation who are there will provoke certain things. They can do things that have nothing to do with our military.”

Danilov did not provide evidence but added, “We can’t say what exactly they are going to do.”

Some context: Danilov was speaking soon after an explosion in Donetsk wrecked a vehicle close to the headquarters of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

The cause of the blast was unclear.

“To date, we do not see a full-scale invasion of our country. Today we can say that targeted provocations by the Russian Federation are possible,” Danilov said.

At the same news conference, Iryna Vereshchuk, minister of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories, appealed to civilians in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions to cross into Ukrainian controlled territory.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said on Friday that any potential sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union should not include energy imports, adding however that “mechanisms were being studied by which Italy can continue to be supplied with gas from other sources,” should that of Russia fall.

Draghi said that in the course of the discussions with its European allies, Italy had “pointed out that sanctions must be concentrated on sectors that must be as narrow as possible, without including energy.” 

“The sanctions may be proportionate to the type of attack and not preventive,” the Italian prime minister added. “Some sanctions would impact Italy more and other countries less,” Draghi continued, adding that energy sanctions “would have a greater impact on countries that use more gas.”

“Germany uses coal, gas and still has some old nuclear power plants in operation that are gradually being shut down but are still active. France has nuclear power and some gas. Italy has only gas and has no nuclear power and no coal. Therefore, it is clear that it is more exposed,” Draghi told journalists. 

Asked about his future visit to Moscow, Draghi said: “There is no date yet, but it should be shortly.”

Italy’s Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio announced Thursday that Draghi would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin soon, adding that he was working with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov to arrange a date for the meeting.

Draghi told journalists that Putin “hinted at the possibility of continuing to guarantee gas supplies to Italy and possibly increasing them, if necessary,” in a phone conversation between the two leaders.

“This must of course also be considered in the light of the commitments and relations with other allies and what the effects of the sanctions will be. So it is a commitment that I greatly appreciate, but which today remains a commitment that needs to be evaluated according to how the situation develops,” he concluded.

As world leaders scramble to find a diplomatic solution over the ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, talk has turned to the 2015 Minsk Agreement as a possible way out of the crisis.

The agreement, the second of its kind (and the one that matters), was hammered out in the Belarusian capital in a bid to end what was then a bloody 10-month conflict in eastern Ukraine.

But Minsk II has never been fully implemented, with its key issues still unresolved.

As the current Ukraine-Russia crisis has unfolded, the agreement has also gained prominence as both sides claim there has been continued violations of the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.

Here’s what you need to know about the agreement:

Who are the key players? A rare meeting between Russian, Ukrainian, German and French leaders in February 2015 sought to bring peace to areas of Ukraine that had been taken over by pro-Russian separatists the year before. Those areas, in Ukraine’s Donbas region, became known as the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The Ukrainian government in Kyiv asserted the two regions were in effect Russian-occupied.

The talks also aimed to work towards a political settlement for the region.

The result, Minsk II, was signed by representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the separatist leaders and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). It was subsequently endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution.

What were the conditions of the agreement? A ceasefire. In February 2015, there was still heavy fighting in some areas between Ukrainian forces and Russian-supported rebels, with the Ukrainians taking heavy losses.

The withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the frontlines.

That the OSCE — a 57-member security organization that also includes the US and Canada — monitor the frontlines.

A dialogue on local elections in areas occupied by pro-Russian rebels.

The restoration of full economic and social links between the two sides, so that, for example, pensions could be paid.

That Ukrainian government control be restored over the border with Russia.

The withdrawal of all foreign forces and mercenaries.

Constitutional reform that would provide some autonomy to the regions of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region no longer under the central government’s control.

Read more here.

Ukrainian and US officials said a vehicle explosion in a Russian-backed separatist stronghold was a staged attack designed to stoke tensions in eastern Ukraine.

Video from the city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine showed a fire in a parking lot and badly damaged military vehicle, close to the headquarters of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) – one of the areas of the country controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

An official channel of the DPR said that “Around 19:00, a car was blown up in the parking lot near the Government House building. The blast wave was heard by the whole city. The Ministry of Emergency Situations went to the place of the explosion.”

Images and video showed emergency services at the scene and a badly damaged vehicle identified by CNN as a Russian-made jeep. There’s no way to verify what caused the damage to the vehicle or the fire.

“We think that this is a staging and a provocation,” Anton Gerashchenko, advisor to the Ukrainian Interior Minister, told CNN on WhatsApp. A US State Department spokesperson described it as a “false flag operation” and said incidents like the vehicle explosion and calls from separatist leaders to evacuate because of alleged Ukrainian aggression represented “further attempts to obscure through lies and disinformation that Russia is the aggressor in this conflict.”

More context: US officials and other Western leaders have repeatedly warned that Russia may stoke violence in eastern Ukraine to create a pretext for a full-fledged invasion.

This comes after Monitors of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) reported a sharp escalation in ceasefire violations along the frontlines dividing Ukrainian and separatist forces in eastern Ukraine since Thursday.

The OSCE said as a result of “allegations of civilian casualties and damage to civilian properties and infrastructure sites over the past 24 hours, the Mission rerouted a number of its patrols in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including to a kindergarten and a railway station in Stanitsya Luhanska (government-controlled, 16km north-east of Luhansk).”

Both sides in the conflict accused the other of ceasefire violations Thursday.

The war in eastern Ukraine started in 2014 and has claimed the lives of over 14,000 people. Intense fighting in 2014 and 2015 left portions of eastern Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in the hands of Russian-backed separatists. The DPR is not recognized by any government, including Russia.

CNN’s Kylie Atwood and Jennifer Hansler contributed reporting from Washington and Munich, respectively.

The chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Lt. Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, joined other officials in an effort to speak out and reassure people in the breakaway eastern regions that the Ukrainian military has no plan to launch an offensive.

“The statements about the alleged offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the forceful scenarios of liberation of the temporarily occupied territories are not true,” he said.

“Ukraine does not plan or conduct offensive operations. The only acceptable option for us to de-occupy our people and territories is political and diplomatic,” he said.

“An offensive operation in Donbas will inevitably cause civilian casualties, that is why such scenarios are not even considered,” Zaluzhnyi said in a Facebook message.

Separately, the Ukraine foreign ministry said: 

“Ukrainian nationals reside on both sides of the contact line. Their peace, security and well-being are an absolute priority for Ukraine.  
Allegations that the Ukrainian government intends to launch an offensive operation in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions are divorced from reality. 
Ukraine is also not conducting or planning any sabotage acts in Donbas.
We categorically reject the attempts of Russia to aggravate the already tense security situation. We remain firmly committed to politico-diplomatic settlement and, together with our partners, maximise efforts to reduce the tension and keep the situation in line with diplomatic dialogue.
In contrast, we observe the Russian Federation unfolding its campaign to disseminate massive disinformation, increasing shelling of Ukrainian positions and civilian infrastructure, using the weapons banned by the Minsk Agreements, and escalating the security situation.”

On Friday, leaders in separatist-controlled areas announced they would be evacuating their citizens.

Some more background: The separatist-controlled areas in Ukraine’s Donbas region are known as the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The Ukrainian government in Kyiv asserts the two regions are in effect Russian-occupied. The self-declared republics are not recognized by any government, including Russia. The Ukrainian government refuses to talk directly with either separatist republic.  

US President Joe Biden called in to a meeting US Vice President Kamala Harris was holding with members of Congress who are also attending the Munich Security Conference in Germany Friday, according to a person in the room.

Biden reiterated the work the US and allies have been doing to try to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

He also updated the members on the situation at Ukraine’s borders. 

Biden is scheduled to deliver remarks on the Ukraine situation from the White House later on Friday. 

Officials from multiple US agencies met Thursday with executives from big US banks to discuss how they might respond to Russian hacking threats as US officials warn that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time, five people briefed on the meeting told CNN. 

The meeting — which covered how to defend against potential Russia-backed hacking attempts against US financial institutions should the Biden administration sanction Russian entities — shows how US officials continue to see cyberspace as a domain of risk so long as the Ukraine crisis drags on. 

The meeting came as US President Biden and his top officials spent the day laying out dire warnings about the potential for a Russian invasion.

Those warnings have coincided with efforts to lay the groundwork for an array of sanctions the US and allies have promised would be deployed in the event of Russian military action. 

Officials from the White House, Treasury Department, FBI and US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency attended the cybersecurity meeting Thursday, the people familiar with the meeting said. Executives from JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, which is the only US bank currently operating in Ukraine, were invited. 

“We have good insight into Russian capabilities, or those of aligned actors, based on past actions, so we’ve approached this [process] with those in mind,” one US official told CNN. 

US officials such as CISA Director Jen Easterly continue to say there are “no specific credible threats to the US homeland’ stemming from the Russian military’s surrounding Ukraine. But officials are also preaching vigilance and, as CNN reported Monday, asking private executives to lower their thresholds for reporting suspicious digital activity to the government.

A Treasury spokesperson declined to comment on Thursday’s meeting. JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup declined to comment. 

A senior administration official told CNN that the White House and federal agencies have been preparing since November for “any potential disruptions to our critical infrastructure and possible impacts to individuals and communities.”

Read the full story here.

US President Joe Biden will speak about the Ukraine-Russia crisis at 4 p.m. ET on Friday, according to a release from the White House.

He is expected to give “an update on our continued efforts to pursue deterrence and diplomacy, and Russia’s buildup of military troops on the border of Ukraine,” according to the release.

Ukraine’s defense ministry reported Friday that as of 17:00 local time (10 a.m. ET), there have been “52 violations of ceasefire recorded and 42 of those used ammunition forbidden by the Minsk Agreement.”

The Russian-backed separatist regions have in turn accused Ukrainian forces of shelling residential areas under their control.

Under the Minsk agreements, both sides must withdraw heavy weapons from the front lines. 

On Thursday, Ukrainian armed forces and separatists controlling parts of eastern Ukraine reported renewed shelling in the Donbas region on Thursday, where a kindergarten was hit by a shell.

French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday called for an end to military activity in Ukraine’s Donbas region, after both the Ukrainian armed forces and separatists controlling parts of eastern Ukraine spoke of renewed shelling. 

“In a context where Russian military pressure does not weaken, where destabilization increases, where bombings in the contact zone have resumed, we call first of all for the cessation of these military actions, and for a rapid de-escalation,” Macron said at the European Union — African Union summit in Brussels. “Very clearly, there are [military] actions that have multiplied. These actions, in our opinion, must stop because they contravene the agreements that have been reached, the ceasefires that have been respected until now, and for which all parties involved had recently reiterated their support.”

Macron said that teams from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) would have to clarify the events of the last few hours and days. 

In an earlier statement, the OSCE said the organization is “aware that Russia is intent on creating a pretext to justify an invasion” into Ukraine, and has received reports which detail Russia’s “efforts to fabricate supposed ‘Ukrainian provocations’ and shape a public narrative that would justify a Russian invasion.”

“Starting several weeks ago, we acquired information that the Russian government was planning to stage a fabricated attack by Ukrainian military or security forces against Russian sovereign territory, or against Russian-speaking people in separatist-controlled territory, to justify military action against Ukraine,” the OSCE statement outlines. 

“We must resolutely rebut the false narrative about a Ukrainian ‘escalation’ which finds no evidence whatsoever in the reports of the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission,” the statement added. 

Macron echoed remarks by other NATO allies, noting that he had seen “no evidence of Russian military disengagement at this stage.” 

“I welcome President (Vladimir) Putin’s statements, but I believe that if we want to be a reliable partner, it is always good that actions are in line with statements, and therefore we want to be able to have concrete elements that follow them,” he told reporters.

“We call for the reopening of constructive negotiations, because we continue to believe that this situation can be resolved through dialogue,” Macron said. 

He also noted that the “next few hours” would “see close coordination between European and American allies,” who will aim to provide an “appropriate response” by the end of the day. 

“I have heard the words of the Russian president. Now we need to move to action, and we need to work with great precision and commitment to stabilize and then de-escalate the situation in collaboration with Russia,” Macron said. “That is essential.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin called the threat of new Western sanctions “a gross violation of international law,” saying the country must “strengthen ourselves from within” to overcome it.  

Russia has been threatened with major new sanctions by the West if it invades Ukraine. 

“That’s sanctions pressure. Firstly, it is absolutely not legal, it is a gross violation of international law, which those who are now talking about it care for only when it is beneficial to them. And when it does not suit them, then they forget about all the norms of international law,” Putin said in a news conference on Friday. 

“The only way to overcome such a state of affairs is to strengthen ourselves from within,” he added.

Putin also alleged that a reason would be found to impose sanctions on Russia, regardless of the outcome of the Ukraine crisis. 

“First of all, of course, in the sphere of economy, sanctions will be imposed in any case … Because the goal is different, the goal is to slow down the development of Russia and, in this case, Belarus,” he said following his meeting with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. 

Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv, made a plea for more defensive weapons to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a panel at the Munich Security Conference on Friday. 

“It’s very important right now,” Klitschko said, acknowledging the support from Germany and the US, “but we need, right now, defensive weapons.”

Klitschko previously called Germany’s offer to Ukraine of 5,000 helmets a “joke,” but this time, he thanked Germany for the 5,000 helmets, but said those are not enough.

“We can’t defend our country just with that,” Klitschko said.

Baerbock noted that the Ukrainians had asked for helmets and that there is a new list of requests from Ukraine, and Germany is looking at what else they can do.

In the last year alone, the US has provided $650 million in defensive lethal assistance to Ukraine, and that assistance would continue, Blinken said. 

During the panel, Baerbock also spoke to the constraints Germany has when it comes to arms sales because of its history.

“That’s why we have a very restrictive arms control legislation,” she said. “Because of our history, we have this legislation that we are saying, we are not selling weapons to everybody in the world, but only to our partners, NATO partners and European Union partners.”

Blinken said that the countries are not just coordinating with one another but also acting in a way that is complementary to one another. 

The leader of the second self-declared republic in eastern Ukraine has announced that the evacuation of civilians to Russia is being organized. The announcement follows a similar move by the pro-Russian authorities in Donetsk.

Leonid Pasechnik, the most senior official in the Luhansk People’s Republic, said in a statement that he had “due to the escalation of tension on the contact line, instructed the heads of the territories of the Republic to ensure the organized evacuation of the population … and help the population in the delivery to border checkpoints.”

Pasechnik said “the Russian Federation is ready to provide organized reception and accommodation on its territory of residents of the Luhansk People’s Republic.”

“Once again, I appeal to all men who are able to hold weapons in their hands, to defend their land,” Pasechnik added.

He accused Ukrainian forces of violating the ceasefire regime 29 times in the last day and listed 13 towns that he said had been shelled.

Donetsk Mayor Andrei Kulemzin spoke Friday about evacuating his citizens on Russian state-owned Russia-24 news.

“We are working round-the-clock to get our citizens out of the line of fire. Everything is going smoothly so far,” Kulemzin said. “Our priority is to first get out our children, then women, then the elderly,” he added.

Earlier today, CNN reported that the leader of the breakaway Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, Denis Pushilin, has appealed to civilians to begin a mass evacuation because of what he described as Ukrainian aggression.

Pushilin said that from “today, Feb. 18, a mass centralized evacuation of the population to the Russian Federation has been organized.”

“By agreement with the leadership of the Russian Federation in the Rostov region, the places of reception and accommodation of our citizens are ready,” Pushilin said. 

“All conditions have been created for a quick transition at checkpoints.” Pushilin said the order was given because of Ukraine’s “daily build-up of troops and lethal weapons, including Smerch and Uragan multiple launch rocket systems, NLAW rocket sets, as well as Javelins and Stingers along the entire contact line.” 

Sebastian Shukla and Anastasia Graham-Yooll contributed reporting to this post.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that the ongoing Ukraine-Russia crisis should be framed not as an Ukraine crisis, but as a “Russia crisis,” while warning of a “new war impeding right in the middle of Europe.”

Baerbock said a Russian troop buildup around Ukraine is “an absolutely unacceptable threat,” to Ukraine and to the “peace architecture in Europe,” during her opening statement at the Munich Security Conference on Friday.

Baerbock said earlier in the week that the West observed a ”glimmer of hope” in the Ukraine-Russia crisis, ”but we now need to see proof of Russian troops withdrawal,” adding that Germany is still considering ”all options on the table, including Nord Stream 2 ”regarding potential unprecedented sanctions on Russia.”

Baerbock added that Germany is ready to ”fight for every millimeter (of peace) — and every millimeter is better than none at all,” on the diplomatic front exclusively. 

Due to the country’s role in World War II, Germany is not exporting weapons to Ukraine and under its very restrictive arms control legislation is only selling weapons to its NATO and European partners.

”We have different roles, we have different histories,” Baerbock said.

”If you balance the consequences, we believe at this moment it is not the moment to change our course,” adding that Germany is not the same as its allies, and has a “different responsibility for securing international peace than others.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken cited the last 24-48 hours, including Russia adding “leading edge forces” to its troops on Ukraine’s border, to show that Russia’s coercive tactics toward Ukraine are already in play.

“Everything that we’re seeing … is part of a scenario that is already in play of creating false provocations, of then having to respond to those provocations, and ultimately committing new aggression against Ukraine,” Blinken said at the Munich Security Conference on Friday. 

 Blinken said what Russia has done in recent days has the US on alert.

“The facts are that despite what Russia has said in recent days about pulling back forces from the border, that has not happened. On the contrary, we see additional forces going to the border, including leading edge forces that would be part of any aggression. So we have to be informed by that. We have to be extremely vigilant.”

Blinken said the US is doing “everything” possible to make clear that there is a diplomatic path forward but is “deeply concerned” that Russia is not pursuing that path. 

“Even as we are doing everything we possibly can to make clear that there’s a diplomatic path, that this has to be resolved, the differences have to be resolved through dialogue, through diplomacy, we are deeply concerned that that is not the path that Russia has embarked on,” Blinken said.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Russian counterpart on Friday as tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain extremely high, and Russia continues to add troops and build up its military presence at Ukraine’s border. 

Austin “called for de-escalation, the return of Russian forces surrounding Ukraine to their home bases and a diplomatic resolution,” according to a readout of the conversation with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and provided by the Pentagon.

Austin is currently traveling in Poland as a part of a week-long trip. He was at the NATO defense ministerial in Brussels on Thursday.

The latest US intelligence assessment indicates that Russia is continuing with preparations to invade Ukraine, according to a senior US official with direct knowledge and another source directly familiar with the intelligence.

The assessment — described as “bleak” by the senior official — indicates Russia could attack in the coming days. The US still expects any Russian invasion to be prefaced by a false flag operation, another US official said. 

However, US officials caution they do not know if Putin has made a final decision to invade and note he may delay action or not order it at all. Earlier assessments forecasting military action by Russia this week did not bear out. 

The US has briefed the Ukrainian military on the newest assessment, according to a senior US official and a senior Ukrainian government official. 

US President Joe Biden warned Thursday that “every indication” leads him to believe Russia could invade Ukraine in the coming days. “My sense is it will happen in the next several days,” the President said the White House south lawn.

The US is now watching for signs that Russian preparations have entered the final stage, including the loading of amphibious ships and the further positioning of combat units closer to the Ukrainian border.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned Friday that Russia is moving military elements as if “they were preparing to launch an attack,” he added, noting that NATO has observed Russia moving and dispersing troops near the Ukrainian border, and increasing its logistical capabilities in the region. 

The US also remains concerned that Russia may attempt to create a false pretext for invasion by staging attacks on its own territory or forces which it would blame on Ukraine or the West. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken laid out the range of potential scenarios before the United Nations Security Council Thursday.

“Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide, making a mockery of a concept that we in this chamber do not take lightly,” Blinken said.

Russia has “probably has massed between 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on Jan. 30,” Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, said Friday. 

“While Russia has sought to downplay or deceive the world about their ground and air preparations, the Russian military has publicized its large-scale naval exercises in the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and the Arctic,” he said.

“Russia has publicly said the Black Sea exercise alone involves more than 30 ships, and we assess that amphibious landing ships from the Northern and Baltic Fleets were sent to the Black Sea to augment forces there,” he continued.  

In the statement, Carpenter laid out seven steps he recommends the Russians fulfill in order to “reduce risk of miscalculation and lower tensions.”

The steps include:

The OSCE is a 57-member security organization that also includes the US and Canada.

The large estimate of 160,000-190,000 Russian personnel by the US includes Russian troops on the borders of Ukraine as well as the Russian-led forces in eastern Ukraine, an administration official tells CNN.

The earlier estimate this week from a senior administration official on approximately 150,000 forces was just borders and did not factor in the Russian-backed separatists.

CNN’s Kaitlan Collins contributed reporting to this post.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said his country’s military exercises are “purely defensive and do not threaten anyone.”

While speaking during a joint news conference with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Friday in Moscow, Putin said joint drills with Belarus will continue until Sunday. He said both countries’ defense ministries announced the “exercises well in advance.”

“We discussed in detail our common defense space between Russia and Belarus. We will continue to take steps towards common defense, considering the increasing presence of NATO on the borders of our Union State,” Putin said following their meeting.

The Ukrainian military took a group of journalists to the town of Stanytsia Luhanska in eastern Ukraine, where both Ukrainian armed forces and separatists controlling parts of the Donbas region reported renewed shelling on Thursday, according to CNN’s Clarissa Ward.

Video and images confirmed by CNN show that a kindergarten in Ukrainian-controlled territory was hit by a shell Thursday.

“There is great concern that this situation could be escalating, because while that war, that front line has been going on for many years between the Ukrainian military and pro-Russian separatists … there are broad concerns that this could be used as the situation if it continues to escalate as a pretext for President Putin to try to launch some kind of an incursion,” Ward reported.

CNN has established that the school is less than five kilometers (about three miles) from what is known as the Line of Contact, which separates the two sides. CNN has not established who initiated the exchange of fire. 

Watch what the CNN crew saw on the ground:

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would be “catastrophic,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said Friday during his opening remarks at the Munich Security Conference in Germany, calling for diplomatic efforts to continue.

“I am deeply concerned about heightened tensions and increased speculation about a military conflict in Europe. I still think it will not happen but, if it did, it would be catastrophic,” Guterres said.

“There is no alternative to diplomacy. All issues, including the most intractable, must be addressed through diplomatic frameworks. It is high time to seriously de-escalate,” he added.

The UN secretary general also noted that “geopolitical divides continue to grow,” and called for “serious dialogues to continue.”

The Biden administration has approved a possible $6 billion sale of battle tanks and related equipment to Poland, the US State Department announced Friday amid heightened tensions in the region, and as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is in Poland.

This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a NATO ally that is a force for political stability and economic progress in Europe,” the announcement said.

“The proposed sale will improve Poland’s capability to meet current and future threats by providing a credible force that is capable of deterring adversaries and participating in NATO operations. Poland will have no difficulty absorbing this equipment into its armed forces,” it said.

“The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region,” it added.

US Vice President Kamala Harris, in her first bilateral meeting at the Munich Security Conference, said Friday that the United States remains open to a diplomatic resolution regarding Russian provocations in Ukraine but warned that “aggressive action” by Russia will be met with “severe consequences” of economic sanctions.

“We remain, of course, open to and desire diplomacy as it relates to the dialogue and the discussions we’ve had with Russia. But we are also committed — if Russia takes aggressive action — to ensuring there will be severe consequence, in terms of the economic sanctions we have discussed,” Harris said in Munich Friday.

Harris, in a photo spray of her bilateral meeting with North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, also hailed the strength of NATO specifically around the issue, calling the alliance “strong.”

“Right now, we are obviously dealing with the concern about what is happening in Ukraine. As a member of NATO, we feel very strongly and will always be committed to the principal of territorial integrity and sovereignty,” Harris said.

“I am here to ensure that through our discussions and the discussions I will have with other of our allies, that we continue as these hours and days progress to stay in close contact. We understand this is a dynamic moment in time. So the work we are doing on a daily basis — and sometimes on an hourly basis to strengthen the relationship — to check in, in terms of our strategic imperative, is critically important and it’s one of the reasons I’m here,” Harris added.

Harris said that she and US President Biden “feel strong” that the NATO alliance is enduring and has been “highlighted without any question over the course of the last several months.”

“We believe that the relationship has only strengthened and as we go forward, we believe that it will continue to be one of the most critical relationships we have,” Harris added.

Harris did not answer questions from reporters.

NATO and the European Union are “not prepared” to fully uphold security guarantees, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Friday. 

“We discussed the state of things in the European continent, including issues around Russia’s initiative of guaranteed security – equal and undivided security – in accordance with the principles approved at the highest level, as part of the OSCE,” Lavrov told reporters following a meeting with his Greek counterpart in Moscow.

“Unfortunately, our partners in NATO and the European Union are not prepared to uphold this in full capacity, particularly with regards to demands on each party to avoid strengthening their own security at the expense of the security of any other country,” he added. 

A day earlier, Lavrov said Russia’s core security issues must be addressed first in any negotiations with the US and NATO, before other security issues can be resolved.  

“That is NATO’s non-expansion to the East; non-placement of strike weapons; and respect to the military and political configuration at the time of signing of the founding act between Russia and NATO,” Lavrov said. 

The Russian Foreign Minister also directed criticism at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission, which has monitored the situation in Donbas, saying the mission “at first acted objectively in Donbas but then started trying to disguise events” on the ground.  

“The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission is trying to ‘smooth out’ the data that indicates the guilt of the Ukrainian military in violation of the ceasefire in Donbas,” Lavrov said, without offering further evidence. 

Some context: The security guarantees are demands put forward by Russia on Thursday to the US in response to written proposals the US submitted to Russia three weeks ago.

In an 11-page document published by state news agency RIA-Novosti on Thursday, Moscow said the US did not provide a constructive response to its security demands and that “the increasing US and NATO military activity close to Russian borders is alarming.”

“It’s about giving up the further expansion of NATO,” the response said.

The letter also said the US did not provide a response to their demands: “It’s about giving up the further expansion of NATO, about the withdrawal of the ‘Bucharest formula’, whereby ‘Ukraine and Georgia will become members of NATO, and the refusal to create military bases on the territory of states formerly part of the USSR and non-members of the NATO alliance, including the use of their infrastructure to conduct any military activity, and the return of NATO military capabilities, including strike capabilities, and infrastructure to the 1997 status, when the NATO-Russia Founding Act was signed. These stipulations are of fundamental importance to the Russian Federation.” 

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko would accompany him during a military exercise Saturday. 

“Now an active phase exercise [of military drills] is underway, and tomorrow we will even take part together in one of the serious events in this complex of military cooperation,” Putin said in a televised meeting with Lukashenko in Moscow.

Earlier Friday, the Russian defense ministry announced that Putin would oversee exercises of the strategic deterrence forces involving the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles. Putin gave no further specifics regarding the exercise in his remarks with Lukashenko.

Russia and Belarus have made “serious progress” in merging the political and economic structures of their two countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday during a meeting with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. 

“We have made serious progress in the construction of the ‘Union State,’” Putin said. “Our colleagues have worked hard and have prepared 28 good programs, and development has been going on in many of these areas for a long time.”

The two leaders have overseen efforts to deepen the integration of the two countries as part of a longstanding project to develop a so-called “Union State,” and Putin noted updated bilateral initiatives in migration, economy, and military matters, among other items.

US President Joe Biden will hold a conference with various leaders from Canada, Europe, and NATO to discuss the Ukrainian crisis, the French presidential office said on Friday.

According to a list shared by the Élysée Palace, the participants will include: US President Biden, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, President of European Union Commission Ursula von der Leyen, President of European Council Charles Michel, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Polish President Andrzej Duda, Romanian President Klaus Johannis, United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron.

For the third day in a row, Russia’s defense ministry has published a video that it said showed tanks and armored tracked vehicles being returned to base after the “completion of planned exercises.” 

The video released Friday and filmed at night from multiple vantage points, including from an aerial drone, shows dozens of military vehicles being moved by rail on flatcars.

Without providing details of where the night video was shot, a statement from Russia’s Ministry of Defense said the military equipment was being transported to a “point of permanent deployment” 1,000 km away in the Nizhny Novgorod region.

“Upon arrival at the military base the servicemen will proceed to perform maintenance on the military equipment and prepare them for further planned combat training activities,” the statement said.

This comes after Russia’s Defence Ministry said Wednesday that its Southern and Western military districts units were moving back to their military garrisons.

Western officials have expressed skepticism over some of the claims. On Thursday, recent satellite images from Maxar Technologies showed Russian forces consolidating and adding to their positions in several regions close to Ukraine. On Thursday, US President Joe Biden warned that Russia could invade Ukraine within days. 

CNN has been unable to confirm if the latest Russian Ministry of Defense statements accurately reflect the situation on the ground. 

Russia expelled the second-most senior diplomat at the US embassy in response to the expulsion of a Russian diplomat from the US, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a statement published late Thursday.

Last week, US Deputy Chief of Mission in Moscow Bart Gorman was expelled without any justification in what the Biden administration views as an escalatory move, the State Department said on Thursday. It happened while Russia and the US are in a tense standoff over Ukraine, which the US says it fears Moscow plans to invade.

Zakharova explained: “The American diplomat was indeed ordered to leave Russia, but strictly in response to the unreasonable expulsion of the Minister-Counsellor of our Embassy in Washington, despite his status as a leading official.”

​​“We repeat once again: the mass expulsions of diplomats and the growing visa war is not our choice,” she said. 

Read more:

Bart Gorman, deputy chief of Mission at the US Embassy in Moscow, is seen outside the offices of the Russian Foreign Ministry in Smolenskaya Square in April 2021.

Related article US says Moscow has expelled deputy chief of mission at US embassy Moscow in 'escalatory' move

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russia was laying the groundwork to justify starting a war and preparing to launch an attack on Ukraine in the coming days, urging Moscow to change course at a tense United Nations Security Council meeting Thursday.

Blinken changed his travel plans so he could speak at Thursday’s UN meeting, where the top US diplomat said he was detailing US intelligence about Russia’s attempts to fabricate a pretext for an invasion in an attempt to “influence Russia to abandon the path of war and choose a different path while there’s still time.”

The United States says evidence at Ukraine’s border shows that Russia is “moving towards an imminent invasion” and is not withdrawing troops, despite Moscow’s claims. The comments from Blinken and other top US officials Thursday — including President Joe Biden’s blunt warning that he believed an attack would happen “within the next several days” — marked an even greater sense of urgency from the Biden administration that Russia’s actions indicated the Kremlin was moving forward with plans for war.

“Every indication that we have is that they are prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine,” Biden told reporters as he left the White House on Thursday.

Russia once again dismissed the notion it was preparing to attack Ukraine as “baseless accusations.”

In his address to the Security Council, Blinken laid out several steps the US expected Russia to take in the coming days in an attempt to justify military action in Ukraine. He said Moscow was likely to try to generate a pretext for the war, which could be a fabricated terrorist bombing inside Russia, the invented discovery of a mass grave or a staged drone strike.

“Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide, making a mockery of a concept that we in this chamber do not take lightly,” Blinken said.

Blinken said that top Russian officials were likely to hold urgent meetings before an attack that would include Russian bombings across Ukraine and cyberattacks. He added that the US believes Moscow has already selected targets that Russian tanks and troops would advance on, including Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.

Blinken acknowledged “that some have called into question our information,” nodding to past problems with US intelligence in the run-up to the Iraq War. But he said the US would be relieved if its predictions are proven incorrect and Russia changes course.

Read the full story:

Related article US says evidence suggests 'Russia is moving towards an imminent invasion' of Ukraine

The Ukrainian military says its forces have suffered two casualties as a result of “enemy fire” along the frontlines in eastern Ukraine.

The Joint Forces Operation announced that the two service members were wounded in action. Both are in hospital, it said, with one of the soldiers in a serious but stable condition.

It said that, as of 11 a.m. local time (4 a.m ET), Russian-backed separatists had carried out 33 violations of the ceasefire, including 22 incidents in which they fired weapons prohibited by the Minsk Agreements.

Some context: The war in eastern Ukraine started in 2014 and has claimed the lives of more than 14,000 people. Intense fighting in 2014 and 2015 left portions of eastern Luhansk and Donetsk in the hands of Russian-backed separatists. 

Those separatist-controlled areas in Ukraine’s Donbas region, became known as the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The Ukrainian government in Kyiv asserts the two regions are in effect Russian-occupied. The self-declared republics are not recognized by any government, including Russia. The Ukrainian government refuses to talk directly with either separatist republic. 

The Minsk II agreement of 2015 led to a shaky ceasefire agreement, and the conflict settled into static warfare along the Line of Contact that separates the Ukrainian government and separatist-controlled areas. The Minsk Agreements (named after the capital of Belarus where they were concluded) ban heavy weapons near the Line of Contact. 

There is “still time for diplomacy” between Russia and NATO to find a resolution to the ongoing Ukraine crisis, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Friday. He cautioned however that the US and its allies “will be ready” should Russian President Vladimir Putin decide to invade Ukraine. 

“Whatever path he chooses, the United States and our allies and partners will be ready,” he added. 

Speaking during a joint press conference alongside his Polish counterpart Mariusz Blaszczak in Warsaw, Austin noted that the US continues to observe a buildup of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border. 

“Although Russia has announced that it is moving its forces back to garrison, we have yet to see that. In fact, we see more forces moving into that border region,” Austin told reporters. 
“We also see them continuing to prepare by doing things that you would expect military elements to do as they were preparing to launch an attack,” he added, noting that NATO has observed Russia moving and dispersing troops near the Ukrainian border, and increasing its logistical capabilities in the region. 

“The United States also continues to move material assistance to Ukraine to help the Ukrainians defend themselves. Fortunately, neither Poland or the United States are alone in dealing with this challenge,” Austin said. 

“The entire [NATO] alliance stands with Ukraine in supporting its sovereignty, its territorial integrity, and its right to choose its own path and relations with its neighbors and the rest of the world,” he added. 

Poland’s National Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak thanked his US counterpart for deploying American troops to the country amid fears of Russian aggression during a joint press conference on Friday.

“Mr. Secretary, thank you very much for the American forces in Poland and also your declaration about [the] possibility to reinforce NATO and Poland, if required in future,” he said, speaking alongside US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

He also thanked Austin personally for his role in reinforcing the Polish military with Abrams tanks and F35 fighter jets and highlighted the importance of strengthening NATO’s flank in eastern Europe.

He described Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine as “the biggest security crisis since the end of the Second World War.”

The “best answer” to the threats posed by Russia is NATO not being afraid and staging a deterrence, he said, adding: “We can see this policy being implemented when American troops are deployed in Poland.

“Unity of NATO is the best answer to aggressive behavior of Russia. Russian imperialist behavior requires from all allies activities that would deter Russia,” he said.  

“American soldiers’ arrival in Poland will support our defense. We will provide all necessary assistance to American soldiers as required.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend planned exercises Saturday where ballistic and cruise missiles will be launched, the Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement Friday. 

“On Saturday, a planned exercise of the strategic deterrence forces will be held under the leadership of Vladimir Putin. Ballistic and cruise missiles will be launched. 

“The exercises will involve the Aerospace Forces, the Strategic Missile Forces, the Northern and Black Sea Fleets,” the Russian Ministry of Defense said according to RIA. 

“The exercise of the strategic deterrence forces was planned earlier to test the readiness of forces and means,” it continued.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Putin would oversee the drills because “such exercises and such launches are impossible without the head of state; you know about the famous black suitcase, the red button, and so on. When it comes to specifics, this is not public information.”

The situation in Donbas is “very disturbing” and potentially “very dangerous,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Friday during a regular phone call with journalists. 

It comes after both Ukrainian armed forces and separatists controlling parts of eastern Ukraine spoke of renewed shelling in the region.

Peskov said Thursday the reports of shellfire were a matter of “very, very deep concern” but added that there were no plans to discuss the matter with the Ukrainian government.

On any other week, the high-level diplomatic drama that unfolded in Moscow on Thursday should have been the main headline. But the images of a shelled kindergarten in eastern Ukraine shifted international focus to the Donbas region, where the world braced itself for signs that the simmering conflict there might escalate very seriously and catastrophically.

Thankfully, the shell that hit the Stanytsia Luhanska school took no lives. But they were a reminder of the very real stakes for people living near the Line of Contact that separates Ukrainian government forces from Russian-backed separatists.

For weeks, world leaders have been shuttling back and forth to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin and making high-level phone calls to try to put the brakes on a confrontation between Russia and the West over the Ukraine crisis.

Yet in Moscow, there’s been no signs of a breakthrough, but a clear ratcheting up of tension. On Thursday afternoon local time, US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan paid a visit to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where he received a long-awaited response from the Russian government to a written document delivered to Russia three weeks earlier.

The document made clear that the Russians laid full blame on the US and its allies for stoking the Ukraine crisis, even as evidence continues to mount that as many as 150,000 Russian troops are arrayed around Ukraine’s borders.

Read the full story:

Video and images confirmed by CNN show that a pre-school in Ukrainian-controlled territory was hit by a shell Thursday. The Ukrainian armed forces said that "Russian occupation troops shelled the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska."

Related article Russian-US diplomacy stalls, with a shelled Ukrainian kindergarten a stark reminder of the lives at stake

The Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu will hold a telephone call with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin on Friday, Russian state news agency TASS reported, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense.  

TASS reported the call is at the initiative of the American side. 

Austin is in Poland Friday, where he is expected to hold a joint news conference with his Polish counterpart Mariusz Błaszczak. 

This comes as Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko arrives in Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti. 

The pair will discuss a number of issues, including “security in the region and joint actions to ensure the national interests in the two countries,” RIA cites the Belarusian president’s press service as saying. 

Russia and Belarus are currently holding ten days of joint military drills, which began in Belarus on February 10 and will end on February 20.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Friday that the shelling of Ukrainian territory from areas controlled by Russian-backed separatists had risen dramatically in the past day.

Reznikov told the Ukrainian Parliament that between January 1 and February 16 there had been a total of 107 instances of shelling – but on Thursday alone there were 60 such attacks, 43 of them carried out using weapons prohibited under the Minsk agreement.

Reznikov said the main targets were civilians, describing the attacks as a war crime.

He said Ukraine’s main task was to avoid what Russia wanted, which was retaliation for such attacks.

He asked people living in the breakaway regions not to believe what he described as rumors that Ukrainian forces were planning an offensive – an allegation frequently made by officials in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Similarly, he said there was no question of Ukrainian aggression against Belarus. “Our descendants would curse us for this.”

Reznikov estimated that Russia has 129,000 ground troops near Ukrainian borders and a further 20,000 as Russia’s naval and aviation component.

The war in eastern Ukraine started in 2014 and has claimed the lives of over 14,000 people. Intense fighting in 2014 and 2015 left portions of eastern Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in the hands of Russian-backed separatists. 

The Ukrainian military said Friday that in the first nine hours of the day 20 violations of the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine were recorded “15 of which by using weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements.”

“The enemy used 122 mm artillery systems, 120 mm and 82 mm mortars, grenade launchers of various systems, infantry fighting vehicles, and large-caliber machine guns,” the Joint Forces office reported.

It said there are no casualties among the Ukrainian military.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry recorded 60 ceasefire violations Thursday, the highest since May 2018.

The Russian-backed separatist regions have accused Ukrainian forces of shelling residential areas under their control.

Under the Minsk agreements, both sides must withdraw heavy weapons from the front lines.

Some context: This comes after Monitors of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) reported a sharp escalation in ceasefire violations along the frontlines dividing Ukrainian and separatist forces in eastern Ukraine on Thursday. 

The OSCE said as a result of “allegations of civilian casualties and damage to civilian properties and infrastructure sites over the past 24 hours, the Mission rerouted a number of its patrols in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including to a kindergarten and a railway station in Stanitsya Luhanska (government-controlled, 16km north-east of Luhansk).” 

The kindergarten was hit by artillery fire early Thursday. Two people suffered minor injuries, according to Ukrainian authorities.  

Both sides in the conflict accused the other of ceasefire violations Thursday. 

The war in eastern Ukraine started in 2014 and has claimed the lives of over 14,000 people. Intense fighting in 2014 and 2015 left portions of eastern Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in the hands of Russian-backed separatists. 

As world leaders scramble to find a diplomatic solution over the ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, talk has turned to the 2015 Minsk Agreement as a possible way out of the crisis.

The agreement, the second of its kind (and the one that matters), was hammered out in the Belarusian capital in a bid to end what was then a bloody 10-month conflict in eastern Ukraine.

But Minsk II has never been fully implemented, with its key issues still unresolved.

Here’s what you need to know:

Who are the key players? A rare meeting between Russian, Ukrainian, German and French leaders in February 2015 sought to bring peace to areas of Ukraine that had been taken over by pro-Russian separatists the year before. Those areas, in Ukraine’s Donbas region, became known as the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The Ukrainian government in Kyiv asserted the two regions were in effect Russian-occupied.

The talks also aimed to work towards a political settlement for the region.

The result, Minsk II, was signed by representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the separatist leaders and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). It was subsequently endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution.

What were the conditions of the agreement? A ceasefire. In February 2015, there was still heavy fighting in some areas between Ukrainian forces and Russian-supported rebels, with the Ukrainians taking heavy losses.

The withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the frontlines.

That the OSCE — a 57-member security organization that also includes the US and Canada — monitor the frontlines.

A dialogue on local elections in areas occupied by pro-Russian rebels.

The restoration of full economic and social links between the two sides, so that, for example, pensions could be paid.

That Ukrainian government control be restored over the border with Russia.

The withdrawal of all foreign forces and mercenaries.

Constitutional reform that would provide some autonomy to the regions of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region no longer under the central government’s control.

Read the full story here.