The latest on the Ukraine-Russia border crisis

US officials say that they are still holding out hope that diplomacy will prevail amid a potential threat of military action by Russia in Ukraine.

Hope for diplomacy: The US continues to seek a diplomatic solution to defuse the crisis along Ukraine’s borders, the White House said Monday, but called the continued buildup of Russian troops along Ukraine’s border a hindrance to de-escalation.

“We are actively working to reach a diplomatic solution to deescalate the crisis,” deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, responding to a question about Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s comments that the window for diplomacy hasn’t closed.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin is “willing to negotiate,” adding the Ukraine crisis was only one part of Russia’s larger security concerns.

“First of all, President Putin has always been demanding negotiations and diplomacy,” Peskov told CNN’s Frederik Pleitgen late Monday. “And actually, he initiated the issue of guarantees of security for the Russian Federation. And Ukraine is just a part of the problem, it’s a part of the bigger problem of security guarantees for Russia and of course President Putin is willing to negotiate,” he said.”

Preparing for “military action”: While diplomatic lines remain open, the State Department made the decision move remaining diplomats from Kyiv to western Ukraine, because the department felt it was “absolutely necessary” due to the “distinct possibility, perhaps more real than ever before, that Russia may decide to proceed with military action,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Monday.

During a Pentagon briefing, press secretary John Kirby said Russian President Vladimir Putin “continues to add to” his “menu of options” with the type of capabilities he has added from the Russian military by land, sea and air.

“I would just say this, that he continues to advance his readiness should he choose to go down a military path here, should he choose to invade again, he is doing all of the things that you would expect him to do to make sure that he’s ready for that option, or options,” Kirby said.

Wall Street impact: The Dow fell 172 points — or 0.5% — on Monday as Wall Street struggled to interpret the financial impact of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

As the United States announced the closing of the US embassy in Kyiv, US stocks dropped.

On the ground in Ukraine: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that the Russian military buildup near the Ukrainian border represents an “unprecedented challenge for Europe and globally.” 

“The escalation at the Ukranian-Russian border is an unprecedented challenge for Europe and globally,” Zelensky said, speaking alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “That’s why it is very important that our partners support our country economically, in the area of defense.”

“I always reiterated that without Ukraine it is impossible to shape the security in Europe,” he went on to say. “The security of Ukraine is the security of Europe and only together can we find some ways of how to defend and protect our children,” he added.

The Dow fell 172 points — or 0.5% — on Monday as Wall Street struggled to interpret the financial impact of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

As the United States announced the closing of the US embassy in Kyiv, US stocks dropped.

On Monday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that “due to the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces,” the small number of remaining diplomatic personnel are “temporarily relocating” to Lviv, a city in the west of the country.

Fearing an inevitable war in Eastern Europe, investors are concerned that a prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine could damage the global economy.

Russia remains one of the world’s leading energy exporters, and a war could cut off the supply of its natural gas and oil to other countries that depend on it. Such a development could send prices surging at a time when much of the world is already coping with sky-high inflation.

CNN’s Jim Sciutto explains why the US felt a “sense of urgency” to close its embassy in Ukraine:

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01:37 - Source: cnn

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin is “willing to negotiate,” adding the Ukraine crisis was only one part of Russia’s larger security concerns.

“First of all, President Putin has always been demanding negotiations and diplomacy,” Peskov told CNN’s Frederik Pleitgen late Monday. “And actually, he initiated the issue of guarantees of security for the Russian Federation. And Ukraine is just a part of the problem, it’s a part of the bigger problem of security guarantees for Russia and of course President Putin is willing to negotiate,” he said.”

Earlier in the day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Putin he saw a “chance” for diplomatic dialogue with the West over Russia’s security concerns, saying he recommended such efforts continue. 

The US continues to seek a diplomatic solution to defuse the crisis along Ukraine’s borders, the White House said Monday, but called the continued buildup of Russian troops along Ukraine’s border a hindrance to de-escalation.

“We are actively working to reach a diplomatic solution to deescalate the crisis,” deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, responding to a question about Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s comments that the window for diplomacy hasn’t closed.

“The path for diplomacy remains available if Russia chooses to engage constructively. However, we are clear eyed about the prospects of that given the steps Russia is taking on the ground in plain sight,” she said. 

“We’re seeing new Russian forces have been arriving at the Ukrainian border every day. As we have said before, we’re in the window when an invasion could begin at any time,” she said.

Her comments did not reflect a major change in position from Friday, when national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters a Russian attack on Ukraine could begin any time. 

Asked by CNN’s Phil Mattingly whether the US would support a statement by Ukraine that it is no longer seeking NATO membership, Jean-Pierre reiterated NATO has an open door policy and said the decision to extend membership to Ukraine would be made by the collective alliance.

Senate leaders on both sides of the aisle are now being briefed by White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan about the situation in Ukraine.

Top senators on key committees, along with Senate leaders Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell, are getting the briefing.

Russian President Vladimir Putin “continues to add to” his “menu of options” with the type of capabilities he has added from the Russian military by land, sea and air, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said during a briefing on Monday.

On land, Putin has “combined arms capability, so it’s infantry, it’s armor,” but he has also added “air and missile defense as well as offensive air,” Kirby said. 

Putin also has built up his maritime presence. He has added “at least half a dozen” ships in the Black Sea that are LSTs — or landing ships — which have “one purpose, and that’s to put troops ashore,” Kirby said.

“He’s got significant naval power inside the Black Sea,” Kirby said. 

Putin has also added “sustainment capability” so Russian troops can stay “in the field for longer periods of time,” Kirby said. 

“We have definitely seen in recent weeks, adding logistics and sustainment capability so that it’s pretty clear that if he wants to he’s going to ensure that he can keep these troops in the field for longer periods of time,” Kirby added.

The United States has yet to receive a response from Russia to its written documents submitted weeks ago to Moscow, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Monday. 

“We’ve seen the comments from the Kremlin, from Moscow, indicating that their response, in their words, has been finalized. It’s been I believe, over two weeks now, since we dispatched our non-deeper to Moscow. We’ve yet to see a response,” he said at a State Department briefing.

Price said the US would “carefully review” the response once it is received. 

“We are prepared to engage in diplomacy, we hope to engage in good faith, dialogue and diplomacy, but in order for it to be good faith, of course, that will require the Russians to respond in kind,” he said. “In order for this to bear fruit, it will also have to take place in the context of de-escalation. And that is just not something we’ve seen to date,” Price said.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said France does not have the “intention to respond militarily” to any Russian invasion on Ukraine, but he added that Paris is supporting Ukraine financially.  

Le Drian warned a war between Russia and Ukraine would be “disastrous for everyone, singularly disastrous for Russia first of all.”  

“If there’s a war in Ukraine, if Russia invades, Ukrainian gas, for example, won’t flow,” he told French channel France 5 Monday in a TV interview, adding, “the economic consequences will be extremely difficult to shoulder.”

With “dissuasive measures sufficiently strong,” France is hoping for President Putin to “really reflect on the risks he is taking,” if Russia launched an offensive against Ukraine, he said.

Le Drian reiterated that any significant Russian act against Ukrainian sovereignty would invoke “massive consequences” and sanctions from France and other Ukrainian allies against Moscow.  

The decision to move all remaining US diplomats from Kyiv to western Ukraine was made because the State Department felt it was “absolutely necessary” due to the “distinct possibility, perhaps more real than ever before, that Russia may decide to proceed with military action,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Monday.

“We are basing our assessment on what we are seeing on the ground with our own eyes, which is a continued and unprovoked Russian buildup on the border of Ukraine and no accompanying evidence of de-escalation,” he said at a briefing at the State Department.

“It is a distinct possibility, perhaps more real than ever before, that Russia may decide to proceed with military action, with new Russian forces continuing to arrive at the Ukrainian border, and Russian forces staged all around Ukraine and invasion, as we have said, could begin at any time,” he said.

Price said, “it remains unclear to us whether Russia is interested in pursuing a diplomatic path as opposed to the use of force.” He noted that if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to invade Ukraine, “there would be widespread human suffering. 

Price said the staff relocated to Lviv will include the top diplomat – chargé d’affaires Kristina Kvien – and they “will remain engaged with Ukrainian government coordinating on diplomatic efforts.”

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said that Russian President Vladimir Putin “continues to add to his readiness” should he choose to pursue a military path into Ukraine.

“Even over the last 24 to 48 [hours], over the course of the weekend, Mr. Putin has added military capability along that border with Ukraine and in Belarus. He is exercising his, some of his units on the ground there in the south as well as naval units in the Black Sea,” Kirby said during a news conference at the Pentagon.

Kirby continued: “So he continues to add to his readiness, he continues to give himself more options should he pursue a military path here… I would like to refrain from getting into specific movements of their troops. I think that is probably not a wise thing to do with any great specificity. I would just say this, that he continues to advance his readiness should he choose to go down a military path here, should he choose to invade again, he is doing all of the things that you would expect him to do to make sure that he’s ready for that option, or options.”

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will travel to Belgium, Poland and Lithuania this week, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said during a press briefing at the Pentagon on Monday.

In Belgium, Austin will participate in the NATO Defense Ministerial where he will “discuss Russia’s military buildup in and around Ukraine,” with the other defense ministers of NATO, Kirby said.

“He’ll meet with allied and defense ministers across NATO leadership in the defense ministerial, obviously to discuss Russia’s military buildup in and around Ukraine,” Kirby said. 

The secretary will meet with “senior military and government leaders in Belgium, Poland and Lithuania” during his trip, Kirby added

In Poland, Austin will meet with the Polish President and Minister of National Defense. He will also meet with Polish and US troops while there. In Lithuania, Austin will meet with the Prime Minister, the Minister of National Defense, and he will meet with “some US service members” based there. “

Separately, during his time in Latvia, Austin plans to meet jointly with his counterparts from Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, Kirby said. The trip comes as tensions between Ukraine and Russia remain high.

There are now an estimated 130,000 or more Russian forces on the Ukraine border, according to two sources familiar with recent assessments. 

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a call with US President Biden on Monday evening about the situation in Ukraine in which the leaders “agreed there remained a crucial window for diplomacy and for Russia to step back from its threats towards Ukraine,” a Downing Street spokesperson said in a statement. 

“The Prime Minister and President Biden updated one another on their recent discussions with fellow world leaders. They agreed there remained a crucial window for diplomacy and for Russia to step back from its threats towards Ukraine,” the Downing Street spokesperson said.

“The leaders emphasized that any further incursion into Ukraine would result in a protracted crisis for Russia, with far reaching damage for both Russia and the world,” the Downing Street spokesperson said.

“They agreed that western allies must remain united in the face of Russian threats, including imposing a significant package of sanctions should Russian aggression escalate,” the spokesperson added. “They also reiterated the need for European countries to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, a move which, more than any other, would strike at the heart of Russia’s strategic interests.”

Johnson and Biden “agreed to remain in close contact” as the situation in Ukraine evolves, according to Downing Street.

What does an $11 billion undersea pipeline between Russia and Germany have to do with Ukraine? And why is it such a big deal? The answer has everything to do with how Europe gets its energy.

The 750-mile pipeline was completed in September but has not yet received final certification from German regulators. When up and running, it would boost deliveries of gas directly from Russia to Germany.

The United States, the United Kingdom, Ukraine and several EU countries have opposed the pipeline since it was announced in 2015, warning the project would increase Moscow’s influence in Europe.

Nord Stream 2 could deliver 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. That’s more than 50% of Germany’s annual consumption and could be worth as much as $15 billion to Gazprom, the Russian state owned company that controls the pipeline, based on its average export price in 2021.

Energy is a major political issue in central and eastern Europe, where gas supplies from Russia play an essential role in power generation and home heating. Natural gas prices are already near record highs in Europe, and a conflict in Ukraine could bring more pain to consumers.

As Russia’s biggest gas customer, Germany has tried to keep Nord Stream 2 out of global politics. But the issue has become unavoidable after Russia amassed over 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine.

There’s lots of history here.

Disputes over energy prices have plagued the relationship between Russia and Ukraine ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, with Russia cutting supplies of gas to its neighbor on a number of occasions.

Russia has in recent months denied using energy to put pressure on Europe. But the International Energy Agency has blamed Moscow for contributing to the current European gas crisis by supplying less than it could.

Nord Stream 2 could help change the balance of power in Europe when it comes to energy. At the moment, Russia needs Ukraine, because a large amount of the gas it sells to Europe flows to the rest of the continent through the country.

The United States is closing the US embassy in Kyiv and “temporarily relocating” the small number of remaining diplomatic personnel to Lviv, a city in the west of the country, “due to the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced Monday.

“I have ordered these measures for one — the safety of our staff — and we strongly urge any remaining U.S. citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately,” Blinken said in a statement.

“These prudent precautions in no way undermine our support for or our commitment to Ukraine. Our commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering,” he said. “We also continue our sincere efforts to reach a diplomatic solution, and we remain engaged with the Russian government following President Biden’s call with President Putin and my discussion with Foreign Minister Lavrov.”

“The path for diplomacy remains available if Russia chooses to engage in good faith. We look forward to returning our staff to the Embassy as soon as conditions permit,” Blinken added.

More background: The move comes days after the US ordered the vast majority of US government employees to leave the country and announced that consular services at the US Embassy would be suspended as of Sunday. The State Department said this weekend it would keep a small consular presence in Lviv for emergency services.

US officials have repeatedly called on American citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, warning that a Russian invasion come at any moment, including as soon as this week.

The Biden administration is considering offering up to $1 billion in loan guarantees to Ukraine amid concerns over a potential Russian invasion, multiple sources familiar with the matter said. 

The loans are being considered “as part of the additional macroeconomic support we are exploring to help Ukraine’s economy amidst pressure resulting from Russia’s military buildup,” a White House official said.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told lawmakers this morning that the loans were under consideration, sources in the briefing said. 

Ukraine has been asking for such loan guarantees and other financial support from the United States and its allies as concerns over a potential war with Russia have negatively impacted Ukraine’s economy.

Oleg Nikolenko, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, told CNN that he could not confirm numbers, but the macro-financial assistance of the US to Ukraine was discussed during the Blinken-Kuleba call. He said discussions about the assistance are ongoing.

“Another call with @SecBlinken. We keep actively coordinating efforts to protect Ukraine. Grateful to the U.S. for the decision to provide Ukraine with macro-financial assistance. We also discussed the functioning of SMM OSCE. Ukraine is interested in it being fully operational,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted.

It is unclear if the US will only do this if an invasion occurs. 

The State Department and the NSC did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the specifics.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that Ukraine needs energy security guarantees due to the “risks” posed by Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany, adding that he had discussed the matter in “detail” with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during their meeting in Kyiv today.   

Zelensky said Ukraine considers the pipeline “energy and security threats to us and to the region.”

The 750-mile pipeline was completed in September but has not yet received final certification from German regulators. When up and running, the pipeline would transmit Russian natural gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany, avoiding Ukraine.

“We clearly understand that this is a geopolitical weapon. That is why Ukraine needs energy security guarantees,” Zelensky said. 

The President said he proposed to Scholz to launch a “concrete” strategic dialogue in the energy sphere to elaborate “energy guarantees and effective support” for Ukraine. 

“It is important that Germany becomes a guarantor of continued gas transit through Ukraine,” he said. 

Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty has been a key point of discussion among world leaders amid tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Article 5 of the treaty is the principle of collective defense. It guarantees that the resources of the whole alliance can be used to protect any single member nation. This is crucial for many of the smaller countries who would be defenseless without its allies. Iceland, for example, has no standing army.

Since the US is the largest and most powerful North Atlantic Treaty Organization member, any state in the alliance is effectively under US protection.

According to the NATO website, this is what Article 5 lays out:

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”

In reality, the first and only time Article 5 has been invoked was in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the US; as a result, NATO allies joined the invasion of Afghanistan.

However, NATO has taken action on other occasions too.

It put collective defense measures in place in 1991 when it deployed Patriot missiles during the Gulf War, in 2003 during the crisis in Iraq, and in 2012 in response to the situation in Syria, also with Patriot missiles.

All three were based on requests from Turkey.

Read more about NATO and Article 5 here.

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola on Monday expressed support of the EU parliament to Ukraine amid warnings of a Russian invasion.

“The position of this house is clear, we are with Ukraine,” she said. 

She demanded that Ukraine’s “defiance must be matched by continued European resolve and unity.” 

Metsola urged for a de-escalation of the current tension, but said the European parliament stands “ready to support swift, forceful and concrete action.”

“We do this in coordination with other European institutions and the international community should the situation deteriorate,” she added.

Multiple threads of Intelligence, including Russian communications, indicate Russian forces surrounding Ukraine are “clearly advancing their ability to invade,” at any time, according to a senior Administration official.  

“They are making themselves more ready.” This intelligence has led the US to conclude a Russian attack, including an assault on the capital city of Kyiv could begin with no warning, the official said.  

There are now an estimated 130,000 or more Russian forces on the Ukraine border, according to two sources familiar with recent assessments.

The US is not yet characterizing the Russian moves as “final preparations” because Putin still has time to order a stop to any military action the official said. NATO defense ministers are meeting in Brussels Wednesday and Thursday and right now the US cannot rule out Russia military action during that ministerial the official said. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to attend that meeting in person.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to step back from the “edge of a precipice” over the Ukraine crisis, adding there is still time for the Russian leader to do so.   

“We are on an edge of a precipice but there is still time for President Putin to step back. We’re urging everybody to engage in dialogue and for the Russian government to avoid what would be a disastrous mistake for Russia,” Johnson tweeted.  

Read his tweet:

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has affirmed Ukraine’s course toward joining NATO “remains unchanged” in a tweet Monday.

Kuleba said, “Ukraine’s strategic course on joining NATO remains unchanged. It is enshrined in our Constitution and National Foreign Policy Strategy, supported by a growing majority of Ukrainians. It’s only up to Ukraine and thirty NATO allies to decide on the issue of membership.”

It follows Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry walking back comments its UK ambassador made on Sunday, who suggested that Ukraine might consider not seeking to join NATO in an effort to prevent war with Russia.

Ukraine’s National Police are entering a so-called “enhanced mode” to “ensure security and preparedness,” according to an update from the head of the National Police Igor Klimenko. 

In a Facebook post on Monday, Klimenko said from Monday until this Saturday, the National Police of Ukraine have entered “enhanced” mode. He said this results in an increased number of patrols to ensure public safety and order on the streets; the deployment of additional “situational centers” for 24-hour monitoring; and securing protection for critical infrastructure, public authorities and local governments.

Klimenko said the rationale for the enhanced mode is to “provide a more efficacious response to public safety threats.” He added, “This stricter police regime should not be cause for alarm. It is necessary to ensure security and preparedness. We protect, not panic!”

The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine also announced the period of “enhanced mode” for the country’s National Police on its Facebook page Monday.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke on Monday with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to stress the US and its allies’ “commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including its economic and financial stability,” according to a readout from the State Department.

“The Secretary highlighted that, although the United States’ immediate priority is to support efforts to de-escalate the situation, any further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine will be met with a swift, coordinated, and forceful response,” the readout said.

Their call comes a day after President Joe Biden spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and amid warnings that Russia could invade Ukraine at any moment. Blinken and Kuleba have spoken twice in three days.

Kyiv’s St. Michael’s Monastery looked particularly spectacular on Monday — its golden dome sparkling in the bright winter sun. It was hard to think about a war amid all that beauty.

For most Ukrainians though, the thought of a potential war is never too far away. It’s been on their minds for eight years now, ever since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014. Now, it’s just getting a bit more real.

“This feeling, it’s something new. Previously, we didn’t feel such tension and a real danger. We had conflicts, but there wasn’t a real danger for Kyiv,” Taras Samchuk, a 32-year old historian, told CNN. “It was a small conflict, two groups, Ukrainian army, Russian army — or separatists — but now, it’s 100,000 soldiers near our borders and a lot of rockers … so I suppose we should be prepared. Just in case.”

Samchuk said he doesn’t think there will be an attack, but still wants to be prepared. Out of caution, he and his wife are also hosting her sister for a few days.

“Just in case something happens. It’s hard to cover even 15 kilometres in the city,” he said.

His parents, born and raised during the Soviet era, don’t think it’s necessary.

“Our parents say that nothing will happen, not to be afraid. Because it’s Russians, they are just trying the typical tactics of Soviet politicians or late Russian Empire times, late 19th century, just to show the power, saying that in two days they will be in Kyiv,” he said.

Meanwhile, 20-year-old Andriy Krachevskiy said he is worried how the tensions may impact Ukraine’s economic tensions, but he is convinced there won’t be a war.

“Not in the next few months, for sure,” he said.

His parents live near Mariupol, in a Ukraine-controlled territory in Donbas which is a region now partly held by the separatists. He said they too haven’t noticed much change in recent weeks despite all the headlines about escalations, and are not thinking about leaving the area. “They are where they want to be.”

The idea that a Russian invasion might be “imminent” seems almost far-fetched in the streets of the Ukrainian capital — a buzzing European city where people are going on about their business. The public transport system remains busy, shops are well stocked and open, and restaurants are still inviting guests in. But while nothing seems out of the ordinary, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko is drawing up contingency plans including shelters, evacuation procedures and maintaining communications.

Miroslava Grigorieva, 53, told CNN she wasn’t even willing to let herself worry about a war that may or may not happen. She said she’s been avoiding the news, focusing on staying optimistic and calm.

“What we see in the media, it’s all political and I don’t want to internalize it, so I am not listening to it,” Grigorieva told CNN. “An average Ukrainian, and an average Russian, we all want peace, everybody wants peace … We want mutual respect and to be able to communicate normally.”

President Biden is expected to speak with UK’s Boris Johnson around 12:30 pm ET Monday amid escalating tensions in Ukraine, a White House official confirms to CNN.

Over the weekend, Biden had a roughly hour-long phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and he warned him that the US and its allies will respond “decisively and impose swift and severe costs” on Russia should Putin decide to invade Ukraine.

A senior administration official told reporters Saturday afternoon that the call between the two presidents was “professional and substantive,” but “there was no fundamental change in the dynamic that has been unfolding now for several weeks.”

The official said that Biden reiterated the US’ ideas on how to enhance European security while also addressing some of Russia’s security concerns, but noted that it “remains unclear whether Russia is interested in pursuing its goals diplomatically.”

CNN’s Natasha Bertrand, Maegan Vazquez and Donald Judd contributed reporting to this post. 

Another eight American F-15 fighter jets have landed in Poland to join NATO’s ongoing air policing mission in the country, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak tweeted on Monday.

According to Blaszczak, the eight jets landed in Lask airbase.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu Monday, with his defense chief reporting on the progress of major Russian military exercises and giving a sense of the scale of the drills. 

“The exercises are large-scale, exercises are also taking place in the Western Military District, in fact, in all [Russian navy] fleets: these are the Barents Sea and the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Pacific Fleet,” Shoigu said. “Troops from almost all military districts, including the Central District, the Eastern District, and the Northern Fleet, are taking part in the exercises. Some of the exercises are coming to an end, some will be completed in the near future.”

Added Shoigu: “Some things remain to be done, given the scale of the exercises that were planned and started on your instructions.”

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday told Putin he saw a “chance” for diplomatic dialogue with the West over Russia’s security concerns, saying he recommended such efforts continue. 

In remarks aired on Russian state television, Putin said, “In your opinion, Sergey Victorovich [Lavrov], is there a chance to reach an agreement with our partners on key issues that are of concern to us, or is it just an attempt to drag us into an endless negotiation process that has no logical resolution?” 

In his reply, Lavrov noted that Russian officials have warned “against the inadmissibility of endless discussions on issues that need to be resolved today,” but added that “there is always a chance” that diplomacy could work.

CNN’s Uliana Pavlova contributed reporting to this post.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said during a news conference Monday in Kyiv that the joint aim of the allies was avoiding escalation. 

“We are ready for serious dialogue with Russia on European security questions. NATO and the US have presented Russia with concrete proposals, which we support. We now await a reaction, an answer from Russia,” Scholz said.

Scholz said in the event of a military escalation, “we are ready for wide-reaching and effective sanctions in coordination with our allies.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky his visit comes during “very serious times.”

While speaking at a news conference in Kyiv on Monday, Scholz told Zelensky that Germany stood “very closely” on the side of Ukraine.

The talks between the two lasted two hours, Scholz said, and were “good and fair.”

Scholz announced a new credit of 150 million euros to Ukraine.

Scholz said together with France, the Normandy format negotiations had been intensified. “it is and remains a difficult process, but I am convinced it is worth it,” Scholz said.

“The military activities of Russia on Ukraine’s border are not comprehensible for us. There is no good reason for such a military buildup,” he continued.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that the Russian military buildup near the Ukrainian border represents an “unprecedented challenge for Europe and globally.” 

“The escalation at the Ukranian-Russian border is an unprecedented challenge for Europe and globally,” Zelensky said, speaking alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “That’s why it is very important that our partners support our country economically, in the area of defense.”

“I always reiterated that without Ukraine it is impossible to shape the security in Europe,” he went on to say. “The security of Ukraine is the security of Europe and only together can we find some ways of how to defend and protect our children,” he added.

 Zelensky thanked Germany for its partnership and support.

“Germany is one of our key partners in Europe,” Zelensky said, despite Berlin’s unwillingness to ship lethal aid to Ukraine, acknowledging some “differences,” when it came to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. “German investments will be the key guarantors of our stable relations and stable growth.”

As calm pervades the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, the US views the Russian military threat to Ukraine growing.

The latest US intelligence indicates Russia is continuing to build up forces surrounding Ukraine in preparation for possible military action this week, a senior US official briefed on the intelligence tells CNN.

The US believes Russian military action would begin with air and missile attacks on key military infrastructure including airfields, air defense and early warning systems. 

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that “if there is a military invasion of Ukraine by Russia, it’s likely to begin with a significant barrage of missiles and bomb attacks.”

The Russian plan would then be further invade Ukraine from multiple points in the east and north, including plans to surround Kyiv within one to two days of the start of military action.

The air assault “would then be followed by an onslaught of a ground force moving across the Ukrainian frontier, again, where innocent civilians could get caught in the crossfire or get trapped in places that they could not move from,” Sullivan added.

The US also believes Russia may attempt a so-called “false flag” attack prior to military action in an attempt to create a justification for further invasion. US officials have discussed possibilities including Russia staging an attack on its own forces which Moscow would then blame on the Ukrainian military.

Military officials caution that the Russian timeline could change or Putin could decide not to attack. However, Russia has the capabilities and forces in place to initiate widespread action in the coming days. 

As tensions rise between Russia and Ukraine, the role that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization plays in the region has come into focus.

Here’s what you need to know:

What is NATO? It is a European and North American defense alliance set up to promote peace and stability and to safeguard the security of its members. It was created as the Cold War escalated and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.

The aim of the United States-led alliance was to protect Western European countries from the threat posed by the Soviet Union and to counter the spread of Communism after World War II.

Which countries are in NATO?: Twelve founding countries — the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France and eight other European nations — signed the North Atlantic Treaty in 1949, pledging to protect each other by political and military means.

Over the decades since, the alliance has grown to include a total of 30 members.

In alphabetical order, they are: Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, the UK and the US.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but has long hoped to join the alliance. This is a sore point for Russia, which sees NATO as a threat and vehemently opposes the move.

Amid recent tensions with the West, Russia has asked for iron-clad guarantees that the alliance won’t expand further east — particularly into Ukraine.

But the US and NATO have resisted those demands. The alliance has always had an “open door policy,” which states that any European country ready and willing to undertake the commitments and obligations of membership is welcome to apply for membership. Any decisions on enlargement of the alliance must be agreed unanimously.

Following the end of the Cold War, NATO made it clear it would welcome expansion to the east and in 1997, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland were invited to begin accession talks.

Since then, more than a dozen countries from the former Eastern bloc, including three former Soviet republics, joined the alliance.

Despite the major geopolitical changes since NATO’s foundation, its stated purpose remains the same. The key principle underpinning the alliance is one of collective defense: “An armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.”

What does that mean in practice? The principle of collective defense is laid out in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It guarantees that the resources of the whole alliance can be used to protect any single member nation. This is crucial for many of the smaller countries who would be defenseless without its allies. Iceland, for example, has no standing army.

Since the US is the largest and most powerful NATO member, any state in the alliance is effectively under US protection.

Read more about NATO and its role here.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday told Russian President Vladimir Putin he saw a “chance” for diplomatic dialogue with the West over Russia’s security concerns, saying he recommended such efforts continue. 

In remarks aired on Russian state television, Putin said, “In your opinion, Sergey Victorovich [Lavrov], is there a chance to reach an agreement with our partners on key issues that are of concern to us, or is it just an attempt to drag us into an endless negotiation process that has no logical resolution?” 

In his reply, Lavrov noted that Russian officials have warned “against the inadmissibility of endless discussions on issues that need to be resolved today,” but added that “there is always a chance” that diplomacy could work.

As he continued, he listed Russia’s recent engagements with the US and France, and mentioned other countries who have scheduled engagements with Russia, including Germany, Italy and Poland.

Then he added, “Amid the readiness to listen to some counter-proposals, it seems to me that our possibilities are far from being exhausted. Of course, they should not continue indefinitely, but at this stage, I would suggest that they be continued and increased.”

The “sovereign rights” of the Ukrainian people to aspire to NATO membership cannot be traded away, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday.

It follows Ukraine’s foreign ministry walking back comments their UK ambassador made on Sunday, who suggested that Ukraine might consider not seeking to join NATO in an effort to prevent war with Russia.

Europe must get “Nord Stream out of the bloodstream” and seek alternative energy sources other than Russian gas pipelines in order to impose “severe economic consequences” on Russia should it invade Ukraine, Johnson said. 

“It’s very, very important that the West should stand united,” he added.

As Europe’s diplomatic pursuits continue amid fears that an invasion could be just 48 hours away, Johnson said he will be speaking to “various leaders” including US President Biden “very soon” but declined to answer if he had plans to travel to Moscow. 

The Ukrainian and Belarusian defense ministers held a “positive” phone call aimed at relieving tensions, the Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov tweeted on Monday.

“Had a [phone] call with the [Belarusian] Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin. The goal of the dialogue - to relieve stress & prevent the escalation of relations,” Reznikov wrote. “We discussed topical issues & determined the algorithm for further interaction.”

“I see this as a positive signal & the 1st step towards cooperation,” Rznikov added.

The call takes place as Russia has amassed around 30,000 troops in Belarus for joint military drills.

Vitali Klitschko, the former heavyweight boxer and now mayor of the Ukrainian capital, has said the city has contingency plans in case of “Russian aggression,” including shelters, evacuation procedures, and maintaining communications.

Klitschko acknowledged that people might be alarmed by recent developments, saying: “I want to emphasize: yes, the moment for our state today is really dramatic. Ukraine, during all its independence, has never faced such a threat.”

But he promised that “the whole life support system of Kyiv works without failures today. The efforts of the city authorities are aimed both at preventing possible provocations and at withstanding a military attack.”

He said communications would be maintained. “Enterprises are guaranteed uninterrupted communications in the absence of mobile communications and the Internet. We are also improving the notification system, which covers both city service staff and the public.”

Klitschko said contingency plans for evacuation were set up. “The evacuation plan determines the location of collection points, the number of vehicles needed, and the areas for housing the population. I want to notice once again – within the capital.”

And there were enough shelters in the event of an attack, he said. “If a few years ago there were 1.5 thousand suitable shelters in the city, today their number has tripled.”

Klitschko also appealed to foreign businesses not to abandon Ukraine.

“Your help is important today. And to ensure the smooth operation of critical infrastructure in case of emergency, and to equip reservists, and to meet the needs of people in case of a military attack on our country. I am grateful to those who already asks: “how can I help?” And I am grateful to the diplomats of foreign countries, who also offer help,” he said.

Klitschko concluded by saying: “We will overcome all pandemics – both the coronavirus and the virus of Russian aggression. Keep calm.”

China evaded questions on Monday as to why it had not yet evacuated its embassy staff and citizens from Ukraine amid heightened tensions with Russia. 

In a briefing Monday, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said the embassy in Ukraine is “working normally” when asked by a reporter why China had not yet evacuated its embassy staff. 

Without mentioning staff directly, Wang said the embassy continues to provide consular protection and assistance to “safeguard the safety and legitimate rights and interests” of Chinese citizens and enterprises in Ukraine. 

A number of countries, including the United States, have urged citizens to leave the country and reduced staff at embassies in Ukraine as Russia continues its buildup on the border.

In a follow-up question on why it had not yet evacuated its citizens, Wang said China’s position on Ukraine “is consistent and clear” and that parties should “remain rational and refrain from inflaming tensions or hyping up the crisis.”

“All parties should push for a comprehensive settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and related issues through dialogue and negotiation,” Wang said, reiterating that the Minsk Agreement should be “earnestly implemented.”

On Saturday, the Chinese embassy in Ukraine issued a warning to Chinese citizens to “pay close attention” to the political situation between Ukraine and Russia. 

 “The current tense relations between Ukraine and Russia have aroused a lot of attention and there are various inconsistent opinions,” the embassy’s statement said. “Please pay close attention to the [political] situation in Ukraine and enhance your awareness of prevention. The Embassy will always be with you!”

China — which has its own tensions with the West — has expressed diplomatic support for its ally, Russia. In a joint statement issued at the start of February, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping said both sides opposed “further enlargement of NATO.” Russia fears Ukraine may join the alliance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko are set to meet this week, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Monday. 

“Such a meeting is being prepared and we expect it to take place by the end of the week,” Peskov said in a conference call with reporters. 

Asked about whether a decision on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus would be made during that meeting, Peskov said: “Let’s not jump ahead. Let’s wait for the meeting. The two presidents will also make statements following the talks.”

Russia began 10 days of joint military drills with its ally Belarus last week. Its deployment into Belarus is believed to be its biggest there since the Cold War, with “an expected 30,000 combat troops, Spetsnaz special operation forces, fighter jets including SU-35, Iskander dual-capable missiles and S-400 air defense systems,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on February 3.

In a transcript released Monday by his office, Lukashenko also confirmed a meeting with Putin in the near future and said a decision would be made regarding the timing of the withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Belarus.

“We will meet in the near future and decide when, at what time, and according to what schedule to withdraw the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation from here. It’s our business,” Lukashenko said, according to the transcript. 

US President Joe Biden spent the weekend leading what is looking like an increasingly desperate final effort to forestall a Russian invasion of Ukraine – an incursion that could have grave consequences for his own political standing.

If President Vladimir Putin orders his tanks into Russia’s smaller, democratic neighbor, he would send shockwaves around the world and trigger one of the worst and most dangerous national security crises since the Cold War.

And while it is not his prime intention, Putin would cause significant damage to Biden’s prestige and inflict real-time consequences on Americans in an already tense midterm election year – including with likely new hikes to already soaring gasoline prices that often act as an index of voter anger and perceptions about the economy.

Read the full story here:

Related article Analysis: Why a Russian invasion of Ukraine would hurt Americans too

The finance ministers of the G7, an organization of leaders from some of the world’s largest economies, said in a joint statement Monday they were “prepared to collectively impose economic and financial sanctions” to any further military aggression by Russia in Ukraine.

“The ongoing Russian military build-up at Ukraine’s borders is a cause for grave concern,” the statement read. “We, the G7 Finance Ministers, underline our readiness to act swiftly and decisively to support the Ukrainian economy, while also supporting the ongoing efforts to urgently identify a diplomatic path towards de-escalation.”

While their “immediate priority is to support efforts to de-escalate the situation,” the statement stressed that “any further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine will be met with a swift, coordinated and forceful response.”

The statement continued: “We are prepared to collectively impose economic and financial sanctions which will have massive and immediate consequences on the Russian economy.”

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has said if Ukraine refused “the idea of joining NATO” it “would significantly contribute to the formulation of a more meaningful response to Russian concerns,” in response to remarks made by Ukraine’s ambassador in London over the weekend.

Vadym Prystaiko, the Ukrainian ambassador to the United Kingdom, had suggested the country may reconsider its ambitions to join NATO in an effort to prevent war.

Prystaiko clarified his comments on Monday, saying his country was “ready for many concessions” but added those concessions have “nothing to do with NATO, which is enshrined in the [Ukrainian] constitution.”

Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Oleg Nikolenko further clarified his country’s position Monday, saying: “I’d like to repeat that these [Prystaiko’s] words are a bad phrasing. The prospect of Ukraine’s membership in NATO is enshrined in the Constitution and no decisions can be taken contrary to it.”

Asked to respond to Prystaiko’s remarks, Peskov said: “You [the reporter] also drew attention to the fact that Kyiv was asked to clarify the ambassador. This can hardly be perceived as a fait accompli – a change in the conceptual foreign policy change of Kyiv.” 

Asked if such a hypothetical step would satisfy the Kremlin, Peskov said: “Undoubtedly. Something fixed, confirming Ukraine’s refusal of the idea of joining NATO. This is certainly a step that would significantly contribute to the formulation of a more meaningful response to Russian concerns.”

Russia argues that NATO support for Ukraine – including increased weapons supplies and military training – constitutes a growing threat on Russia’s western flank.

Ongoing diplomacy

Peskov also told journalists that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday.

This comes after US President Joe Biden spoke to Putin for around an hour on Saturday, but it did little to change Moscow’s position on Ukraine. A senior administration official told reporters following the call that the discussion was substantive but the US fears Russia may still launch a military attack anyway.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs had on Friday accused Western countries and the press of spreading a “large-scale disinformation campaign” about an allegedly impending Russian invasion of Ukraine “in order to divert attention from their own aggressive actions.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is making a fresh attempt to resolve tensions between Russia and Ukraine through diplomacy on Tuesday. He is currently meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Mariinsky Palace in Kyiv.

The European Union will not be closing its diplomatic missions in Ukraine, the bloc said in a statement Monday, as various countries pull non-essential staff from their embassies.

“The EU and its member states are coordinating their actions in view of the current threats on Ukraine,” the EU statement read. “Our diplomatic missions are not closing. They remain in Kyiv and continue to operate in support to EU citizens and in cooperation with the Ukrainian authorities.”

“Staff presence and travel advice to EU citizens are being adjusted as necessary to take into account security circumstances,” the statement added.

The statement comes as ambassadors of EU member states endorse a proposal to provide €1.2 billion ($1.4 billion) in macro-financial assistance to Ukraine.

The proposal still has to be approved by the European Parliament and then formally by the EU Council, but the endorsement by EU ambassadors is expected to fast-track the process. 

“The EU stands by Ukraine, also economically. The current geopolitical tensions are having a severe economic impact on Ukraine,” Bruno Le Maire, France’s economy and finance minister said Monday according to a EU statement.

Le Maire said: “Member states are ready to provide €1.2 billion macro-financial assistance. I am happy to announce that we decided to support the Commission’s proposal today so that the financial help can reach Ukraine without delay.”

Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border in recent weeks, according to US estimates, raising fears from Western and Ukrainian intelligence officials that an invasion could be imminent.

As frantic diplomatic efforts are made to avert war, analysts are warning that Russia’s military poses an immediate threat to Ukraine.

But if an invasion were to occur, it is not clear where it would begin. Russia has created pressure points on three sides of Ukraine – in Crimea to the south, on the Russian side of the two countries’ border, and in Belarus to the north.

Here are the three fronts Ukraine and the West are watching, and the recent Russian movements detected in each.

Read the full story here.

Global markets are dropping Monday as investors grow increasingly concerned about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine.

European markets all opened sharply lower with Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 below 3%. UK’s FTSE 100 is down 2%.

US futures are also lower and Asian markets ended Monday’s session in red.

This comes as a number of countries have told their nationals to leave Ukraine after a week of failed diplomatic measures to avert Russian invasion of the country.

On Monday, Japan became the latest country to evacuate most of its embassy staff from Ukraine, according to the country’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno.

In a press conference, Matsuno said that most of Japan’s embassy staff in Kyiv are being asked to leave the country via commercial transport, with only essential ​personnel permitted to remain. 

Meanwhile, Greece urged its citizens still in Ukraine to leave the country on Monday, imploring those who remain to “share their contact details immediately with the Greek Embassy” in Kyiv, its Foreign Ministry said.

Read more:

A woman walks past a bank's electronic board showing the Hong Kong share index at Hong Kong Stock Exchange Monday, Feb. 14, 2022. Asian stock markets fell Monday and oil prices rose amid concern about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. (AP Photo/Vincent Yu)

Related article Global stocks slide as fears of Russian invasion grow

Vadym Prystaiko, the Ukrainian ambassador to the United Kingdom, has clarified remarks made Sunday when he suggested that Ukraine might consider not seeking to join NATO in an effort to prevent war with Russia.

Prystaiko told the BBC in an interview Monday: “We are not a member of NATO right now and to avoid war we are ready for many concessions and that’s what we’re doing in our conversations with Russians. But it has nothing to do with NATO, which is enshrined in the [Ukrainian] constitution.”

In an earlier BBC interview, Prystaiko said: “What I’m saying here is that we are flexible, trying to find the best, best way out. If we have to go from, sort of some serious, I don’t know, some serious concessions, that’s something we might do. That’s, that’s for sure.”

This comes as Russia argues that NATO support for Ukraine – including increased weapons supplies and military training – constitutes a growing threat on Russia’s western flank.

Asked by CNN for comment on the ambassador’s statements, a Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the ambassador’s words were “taken out of context.”

“Of course, for the sake of peace and saving the lives of our citizens, Ukraine is ready to enter into any format of dialogue with countries and international organizations,” he said.

“At the same time, Ambassador Prystaiko rightly noted in an interview that the prospect of NATO membership is enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine, but Ukraine is not currently a member of NATO or another security alliance. Therefore, the issue of security guarantees becomes key for our country.

“Undoubtedly, the best such guarantee would be Ukraine’s immediate accession to the Alliance. But threats to Ukraine exist here and now, so finding an answer to the question of guarantees becomes a fundamental urgent task. At the same time, no decision can be made contrary to the Constitution of Ukraine.”

Britain will support whatever Ukraine decides to do regarding its pursuit of NATO membership, UK Minister for the Armed Forces James Heappey told Sky News Monday.

“If Ukraine decides that it is going to offer that it won’t become a NATO member, we support that. That’s for the Ukrainians to decide,” Heappey told Sky News.

“Similarly, if Ukraine wanted to reserve its position and say that in the future it may want to join NATO, we would support that too because that’s what sovereignty is and that’s what we support,” the minister added. 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will make a fresh attempt at deterring Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine after diplomatic efforts to avert war over the weekend failed to achieve a breakthrough.

Scholz, who will be in Kyiv Monday and Moscow on Tuesday, intends to “proceed with talks about the still very serious situation at the Ukrainian border. In Kyiv, it is important to me to express our continuous solidarity and support to Ukraine,” Scholz wrote on Twitter.

“We urgently expect signs of de-escalation from Moscow. Further military aggression would have very serious consequences for Russia. I absolutely agree with our allies on this. We are experiencing a very, very serious threat to peace in Europe.”

This comes after a weekend of diplomacy which saw US President Joe Biden tell his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky that the US would respond “swiftly and decisively” to further Russian aggression against Ukraine, according to a statement from the White House.

Biden spoke to Putin for around an hour on Saturday, but it did little to change Moscow’s position. A senior administration official told reporters following the call that the discussion was substantive but the US fears Russia may still launch a military attack anyway.

The call between Biden and Putin came hours after the US moved some of its forces out of Ukraine and ordered the evacuation of most of its embassy staff on Saturday over invasion fears.