The proposed Saudi Arabia peace talks are less of a peace summit and more of a summit about peace. This isn’t Russia and Ukraine sitting down to hammer out the enduring terms of a settlement. It is, instead, Ukraine circling the wagons around its allies and trying to drag additional developing countries to its corner.
Ukraine is banking on a significant change on the front lines – progress in its counteroffensive — before entertaining the idea of diplomacy.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky maintains he wants all of Ukraine restored to its 2013 borders — before Russia began its occupation by annexing Crimea. It’s unlikely he’ll achieve that militarily this year, or next. But he can seek to frame Russia’s invasion as a strategic defeat by breaking the land corridor along the Azov Sea, between Crimea and Russia’s mainland.
The "Global South" — broadly used to describe developing countries in parts of Africa, Latin America, Asia and elsewhere in the world — will get to hear of Russia’s atrocities firsthand. Some of the countries have been close to the Kremlin. Kyiv and its allies will want to erode any sense of Moscow remaining a power in a multipolar world. India’s attendance is key in amplifying their opposition.
The Saudi hosts will also be messaging tacitly toward one of their allies: China. While Beijing has limited its support of Russia, it also won’t want to back a loser.
The summit will aim to solidify what sort of peace Ukraine can live with. It’s no easy task. But make no mistake: With winter drawing near, US elections looming and NATO’s military support getting expended on the battlefield, word of peace talks will grow.
This is a bid to shape those before they even become a realistic possibility.
