Israel Strikes Inside Iran. Is the Tit-for-Tat Over? - Tug of War - Podcast on CNN Audio

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Tug of War

CNN reporters take us on-the-ground in Israel to document the escalating conflict and what it means for the rest of the world.

A frayed rope is about to split in two

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Israel Strikes Inside Iran. Is the Tit-for-Tat Over?
Tug of War
Apr 19, 2024

A US official tells CNN that Israel carried out a military strike inside Iran on Thursday night, the latest dangerous escalation between the two countries. Israel has not commented and Iran has not yet identified the source of the attack. In this episode, CNN's Jeremy Diamond examines what we know and whether this latest round of back-and-forth is over.

Episode Transcript
David Rind
00:00:00
All week on the podcast, we've been talking about how Israel would respond to that unprecedented aerial attack from Iran over the weekend, which itself was a response to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria, an attack Iran blamed on Israel. I know it's a lot to keep up with, but bottom line, tensions could not be higher in the Middle East.
John King
00:00:20
You just stop that conversation to bring some new developments on our breaking news tonight. Iranian news is now reporting an explosion was heard northwest in a city named Isfahan.
David Rind
00:00:32
And late last night, we got our answer.
Alex Marquardt
00:00:34
I've just gotten confirmation from a U.S. official that Israel has indeed struck Iran tonight.
David Rind
00:00:41
So today. CNN's Jeremy Diamond is going to check in from Tel Aviv to tell us what happened and where this might go from here, from CNN, this is Tug of War. And David Rind.
David Rind
00:00:54
So, Jeremy, it's a little over 3 p.m. in Israel. What exactly do we know about these explosions inside Iran overnight?
Jeremy Diamond
00:01:02
Well, the only acknowledgment that we have of this attack that Israel carried out overnight is coming from US officials, and it's coming privately, and it's not coming with any kind of public confirmation. I mean, we just heard from the secretary of state, Tony Blinken, and he wouldn't even acknowledge that this has actually happened.
Antony Blinken
00:01:20
On the first question, the reports that you've seen. I'm not going to speak to that except to say that the United States has not been involved in any offensive operations.
Jeremy Diamond
00:01:30
'It's the same thing here in Israel, but even more so where Israeli government officials, Israeli military officials, none of them are confirming what has definitely happened overnight. And that is that it appears that Israel struck, targets both inside of Iran as well as inside of Syria. We have gotten reports of explosions, in the Iranian city of Isfahan, which is quite, symbolic in part because there is a nuclear facility there as well as a military base. The explosions appear to be tied to that military base, and there's no indication right now that that nuclear facility has been struck in any kind of way. The commander in chief of Iran's army said that there were explosions in the skies of Isfahan, but he said that those were related to anti-aircraft systems shooting at what he called a suspicious object. Separately, an Iranian official is saying that air defenses intercepted three drones. And then Syrian state media says that air defense assets in Syria were struck by Israel. And that is the most direct confirmation we've seen of any kind of impact on the ground from this, Israeli attack overnight.
David Rind
00:02:42
Well, so I guess the ball's in Iran's court now. And how would they read what happened here? Could go a long way into determining what happens next. But I guess the million dollar question is, is this state on state tit for tat over? Because to me, it's like, when does that go beyond messaging and just becomes, you know, open warfare?
Jeremy Diamond
00:03:03
Well, just think about first what the Iranian foreign minister said last night just hours before Israel carried out this strike.
'Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
00:03:11
However, in case that embassy, the Israeli regime, embarks on that venture ism again and takes action against the interests of Iran, then next response from us will be immediate but hostile and at a maximum level.
Jeremy Diamond
00:03:32
He said that if Israel carried out an attack on Iranian soil, that the Iranian response would be both immediate and that it would also be overwhelming.
'Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
00:03:40
We do not see a call that to create tension or withdraw has and crisis Israel or increase such situations in the Middle East. And we sincerely hope that the Israeli regime does not repeat so previous egregious when you say the response will be.
Jeremy Diamond
00:04:02
And clearly we haven't seen that from from Iran. Separately, a regional intelligence source with knowledge of Iran's potential reaction said that Tehran was not expected to respond to the strikes, basically indicating that this tit for tat, for now at least, is is indeed over. And, and and that just kind of speaks to, you know, the conversation that we've been having over the course of the last six days since Iran carried out this strike on Israel with over 300 drones and missiles. Was Israel needed to find a way to thread the needle, a way to both make clear that this Iranian attack was not going to go unanswered, without sparking a regional escalation and potentially a full blown war between Iran and and Israel. And it appears, at least for now, that that kind of balance was indeed achieved. Now, I think one thing that I was expecting was some kind of a a public message to be sent as well from Israel about this, this attack. I mean, in the days leading up to that Iranian attack, Israeli officials said that if Iran attacked Israeli soil, there would be effectively an Israeli attack on Iranian soil. And while that appears to have happened in some form, it certainly hasn't happened with any kind of public acknowledgment.
David Rind
00:05:19
Right. So what's behind that? That secrecy, if we all kind of knew this was going to be happening?
Jeremy Diamond
00:05:24
Well, I think Israeli leaders over the course of the last week have been coming under enormous pressure from their allies, and especially from the United States, to deliver the kind of response that would not escalate things. And this appears to be the best way that they found to be able to carry out the kind of strike that they wanted to carry out without the public messaging that could have forced Iran into a response. This allows Iran to kind of downplay the significance of. This is really attacked to not even acknowledge it publicly and to avoid the kind of public embarrassment both with their population and and with the, with the world, that would potentially trigger, a reaction, from them.
David Rind
00:06:11
More with Jeremy in just a bit. Welcome back to the Tug of War and my conversation with CNN's Jeremy Diamond.
Jeremy Diamond
00:06:28
And I also think that when you listen to what Blinken was saying today, you know, he was focusing on the Iranian attack on Israel. He was focusing on this kind of global coalition to hold Iran accountable.
Antony Blinken
00:06:40
You saw Israel on the receiving end of an unprecedented attack. But our focus has been on, of course, making sure that Israel can effectively defend itself, but also the escalating tensions, avoiding, conflict. And that remains our focus.
Jeremy Diamond
00:06:57
That wouldn't have been possible if the conversation was about a massive Israeli attack or an attack. That is, the Israeli government was publicly touting, in inside of Iran. And so Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu in particular, who has been kind of squarely focused throughout his time as prime minister on the Iranian threat. This allows him to keep that global coalition, which has been blossoming once again, to keep that alive and to push it forward without undermining it.
David Rind
00:07:27
It's not in anybody's interest to kind of even push the conversation forward and frame it around in Israel. Response. They're just saying the coalition is strong and we can kind of keep going about our business.
Jeremy Diamond
00:07:38
Yeah, that's exactly right. And so now it appears that the focus is going to continue on that global coalition. I mean, we saw sanctions from from the United States and the United Kingdom already this week, and it appears that there's going to be a continued conversation, that there has already been a continued conversation about further steps to isolate Iran. And that's the kind of conversation that that hasn't happened in in quite some time, especially over the course of the last six months, as the focus has been on this war in Gaza.
David Rind
00:08:07
Well, then I guess, what is the mood in Israel right now? Because we had talked about how there was all of this pressure on Netanyahu from some of the far right of his coalition to kind of really project strength here. Did it kind of meet the moment?
Jeremy Diamond
00:08:23
'Well, there's no question that those on the far right, like Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, are not thrilled about this, this Israeli response. He tweeted a one word reactions or apparent reaction to to this Israeli strike, saying Lahm, an Israeli slang word that effectively means lame.
David Rind
00:08:41
Lame?
Jeremy Diamond
00:08:42
'Yeah. And so, you know, he's he's clearly not satisfied with the Israeli response, so insufficient that he's going to bolt from the government or that he's going to bring this government down. Probably not. And I also think it's important to acknowledge the fact that even though Netanyahu faced pressure from Ben-Gvir, from Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister, the Israeli public in a survey this week indicated that it wanted to ensure that whatever response Israel does kept its coalition partners happy. There was such a sense of victory after Israel was able to successfully intercept 99% of those drones and missiles over the weekend with the help of the United States, with the help of regional partners, that there was a sense that whatever the Israeli response would be, that it would need to be something that kept those coalition partners happy. And so the Israeli public, at the end of the day, was more focused on not upsetting those coalition partners on on keeping the United States on its side than it was in seeing some kind of overwhelming show of military strength in responding to that Iranian attack.
David Rind
00:09:47
Because we had talked about how Israel had kind of been more isolated over what's going on in Gaza. But again, Blinken just today talked about how they cannot sign off on, operation in Rafah. So we'll see how long that goodwill lasts. And if everybody kind of takes a step back here. Jeremy. Thank you.
Jeremy Diamond
00:10:02
Thanks, David.
David Rind
00:10:11
Tug of War is a production of CNN Audio. This episode was produced by Paola Ortiz and me, David Rind. Our senior producer is Haley Thomas. Dan Dzula is our technical director. And Steve Lickteig, is the executive producer of CNN Audio. We get support from Alex Manasseri, Robert Mathers, John Dianora, Leni Steinhart, Jamus Andrest, Nichole Pesaru, and Lisa Namerow. Special thanks to Caroline Patterson, Seb Shukla and Katie Hinman. We'll be back next week. Talk to you then.