Israel Tries to Thread the Needle - Tug of War - Podcast on CNN Audio

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Tug of War

CNN reporters take us on-the-ground in Israel to document the escalating conflict and what it means for the rest of the world.

A frayed rope is about to split in two

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Israel Tries to Thread the Needle
Tug of War
Apr 17, 2024

After Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel over the weekend, Israeli officials have been debating how to respond. Meanwhile, members of the Biden administration have told Israel that the US will not participate in any offensive action against Iran, according to US officials familiar with the matter. In this episode, CNN’s Jeremy Diamond tells us how the Israeli war cabinet is thinking about this perilous moment.

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Episode Transcript
David Rind
00:00:05
That's how it sounded in the skies over Jerusalem on Saturday night as Israel's air defenses sprang into action. Iran had fired over 300 projectiles directly from Iranian territory. There had never been an attack like this, and yet that was about as loud as it got. Israel says 99% of what was sent its way was shot down by Israel and its allies. But the major question in the Middle East right now is what will the Israeli response sound like?
Jeremy Diamond
00:00:41
The War Cabinet members definitely feel like they have to reestablish some kind of deterrence to ensure that Iran doesn't view attacks on Israeli soil as kind of part of its normal toolkit going forward.
David Rind
00:00:55
Today, what the War Cabinet is weighing, as the U.S. seeks to head off an all out war from CNN, this is Tug of War. I'm David Rind.
David Rind
00:01:07
CNN's Jeremy Diamond is here. He is in Tel Aviv. And ever since that attack by Iran on Saturday, you have been reporting on the deliberations within the Israeli war Cabinet into how to respond to this attack. So can you take us inside the room? Like, what have those conversations look like?
Jeremy Diamond
00:01:23
Yeah, it's been several days of really intense deliberations, intense debate between the members of the War Cabinet. And up until now, we haven't been told whether or not a decision has been made on the scope and the timing of, an Israeli attack on Iran. One thing is clear, though. The consensus is certainly to respond. The War Cabinet members definitely feel like they have to reestablish some kind of deterrence to ensure that Iran doesn't view attacks on Israeli soil as kind of part of its normal toolkit going forward.
David Rind
00:01:57
Like, they don't want Iran to think we can get away with this scot free.
Jeremy Diamond
00:02:01
Yeah, exactly. They want to ensure that this doesn't go unanswered. They don't view the lack of casualties and the fact that all of these were intercepted as a reason not to respond. That may be a reason not to go all out, not to launch the kind of attack that would trigger a really hot war on a full blown war between Iran and Israel. But that is still one of the things that's been debated. I'm told that, you know, one of the considerations that they're thinking of is how do they kind of thread the needle here? How do they carry out the kind of attack that would not trigger that all out war? One of the military options that I'm told has been discussed is attacking Iranian facilities on Iranian soil in a way that does not cause casualties. And beyond that, the question of timing is a really critical one. I'm told that any, you know, first day really of this. Benny Gantz, a key member of the war cabinet, was pushing for a very swift response. These really Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, actually pump the brakes on making a decision to strike. Yesterday when the War Cabinet deliberated, I was told that coming out of that, there was kind of a consensus that was emerging about, sooner rather than later kind of response from Israel. Today the War Cabinet, met again. But so far, it's not clear whether a decision has been made or not.
David Rind
00:03:20
Well, so you mentioned Netanyahu pumping the brakes there at first, and we learned that, you know, President Biden's message to Netanyahu was basically take the win here. You guys shot down all of these projectiles. And we certainly think that Netanyahu needs a win, at least at home on the domestic front. But do you get the sense that he kind of wants to keep this going?
Jeremy Diamond
00:03:43
'There's no question that he needs to do more, and if only to keep his government in power, he's been getting so much pressure from the right wing of his government, namely the national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich. These are two guys on the on the far right who are basically keeping Netanyahu in power. He needs them in order to keep his coalition government going, and they have been pushing for an all out response. So even if Netanyahu doesn't go quite that far, he does, in a political sense, need to at least respond in some way. Now, there's no question that in speaking to Israelis here, there is a sense of victory already, the ability to intercept, not only more than 300 drones and missiles, but beyond that, the cooperation that Israel enjoyed with, other countries in the region, including Arab countries, including the United States. Now, beyond that, Netanyahu has other problems that he is is dealing with.
Nic Robertson
00:04:42
In Gaza, after months of mounting international pressure, Israel appearing to delay plans for an offensive in the densely populated southern city of Rafah and established aid deliveries directly into the malnourished north.
Jeremy Diamond
00:04:58
He has been promising a total victory in Gaza, and that total victory seems quite elusive at the moment.
Daniel Hagari
00:05:04
Hamas wants is its deal in its own condition, but we have to do everything we can to rescue our hostages.
Jeremy Diamond
00:05:14
He is still facing pressure over the return of the hostages, over making a deal to get the hostages home. And those talks in recent days, I'm told, have been backsliding with Hamas offering fewer hostages than they were actually initially offering for that first six weeks. So there are a lot of factors kind of playing into this, and they are definitely all interconnected as the War Cabinet deliberates this response to Iran.
David Rind
00:05:42
More with Jeremy in just a bit. Welcome back to Tug of War. I'm talking with CNN's Jeremy Diamond. And so for the Biden administration's part, they say they won't participate in any kind of offensive action. But let's game that out a bit. If Israel does strike inside Iranian territory, which would be another huge escalation. Does that change U.S. support in any way because they've already voiced their frustration with the whole Rafah thing with the lack of aid into Gaza. But honestly, nothing really materially has changed in the relationship. Right. So like what would be a step too far when it comes to this response to Iran?
Jeremy Diamond
00:06:33
Well, I think that, you know, beyond the relationship itself, what what the Biden administration is most concerned about is this actually turning into a full blown war between Iran and Israel. And that is a very real risk at this moment. Iran has already said that if Israel retaliates, that they will also respond back. So so again, it comes back to this notion of how and if if I think is also the question if Israel can successfully thread the needle to carry out a response that sends the right message in terms of deterrence, in terms of showing that this attack by Iran will not go unanswered. But that doesn't kind of send things spiraling downward into a full blown war.
David Rind
00:07:15
And I guess what Israel sees as, you know, largely symbolic, not too extreme, might not be seen by Iran that way. And that could really make things worse.
Jeremy Diamond
00:07:25
Yeah, there's no question about it. The longer these kinds of things go on, the more tit for tat there is, the more there is a risk of either miscalculation, of misinterpreting the actions of the other or, frankly, making mistakes, thinking that you're targeting a facility that is unmanned, that turns out to have people inside of it, for example, and causing casualties. So there are a number of ways where this could, you know, really, really go wrong. I think another thing to think about here is the fact that because Israel was so successful in taking down these missiles and drones with the help of the United States because of that, there's a sense in Israel that their response needs to take that into account, that their response needs to take into account what all of those countries who helped Israel defend itself, in particular the United States. Israel needs to take what the United States and those countries say into account as it prepares and plans for its response.
David Rind
00:08:22
Because there's this idea that they may not have that full support going forward. Like this is kind of what I wanted to ask, like, how should we think about just the success of Israel and those allies turning back all those projectiles? Because I know it's very different than October 7th, like this was retaliation for an attack that Iran blamed on Israel rather than a straight up intelligence failure. But Netanyahu has been so dinged about how unprepared Israel was for October 7th, and this one just seemed to work so well. So how should we think about that?
Jeremy Diamond
00:08:56
Well, I think there's no question that Israel might have been able to take down the majority of these drones and missiles without that support, but it would not have been able to take down 99% plus of them. And there is a big difference, of course, between just a handful of missiles getting through and dozens of missiles, getting through and hitting their targets. If not for the infrastructure damage, the structural damage, but for the psychoses and the psychology of people in Israel who right now are feeling quite a sense of empowerment, quite a sense of strength that Israel's air defense systems, its alliances, all of that was able to basically turn this large scale Iranian attack into a dud. And so, without the support of those allies going forward, I think there's a recognition that the situation would have been quite different. So it's a powerful reminder, I think, for Israel about the power of those alliances, the importance in particular of its relationship and its alliance with the United States at a time when we have seen over the course of the last couple of months, Netanyahu in particular, has been kind of shoving aside the criticism and the pressure from the United States in particular, as it relates to the war in Gaza. Now, will that change Netanyahu's relationship with the U.S. as it relates to Gaza as it relates to Rafah? I'm not getting that sense. You know, Israel has delayed this Rafah operation as it prepares this response to Iran, but it has not put it aside altogether. In fact, Israeli officials have told me that that ground offensive into Rafah will eventually happen.
David Rind
00:10:33
And like you say, the words coming from these allies in terms of what happens next could loom very large going forward. Jeremy. Thank you.
Jeremy Diamond
00:10:41
Thanks, David.
David Rind
00:10:50
'Tug of War is a production of CNN Audio. This episode was produced by Paola Ortiz and me, David Rind. Our senior producer is Haley Thomas and Dan Dzula is our technical director. And Steve Lickteig is the executive producer of CNN Audio. We get support from Alex Manasseri, Robert Mathers, John Dianora, Lenni Steinhart, Jamus Andrest, Nichole Pesaru, and Lisa Namerow. Special thanks to Caroline Patterson, Flora Charner, Florence Davey-Attlee and Katie Hinman. We'll be back on Friday. I'll talk to you then.