Editor’s Note: Samantha Vinograd is a CNN National Security Analyst. She served on President Obama’s National Security Council from 2009-2013 and at the Treasury Department under President Bush. Follow her @sam_vinograd. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion articles on CNN.
Every week, I offer a glimpse of the kind of intelligence assessments that are likely to come across the desk of the President of the United States. Modeled on the President’s Daily Briefing, or PDB, which the director of national intelligence prepares for the President almost daily, my Presidential Weekly Briefing focuses on the topics and issues President Trump needs to know to make informed decisions.
Here’s this week’s briefing:
As you begin your trip to France, we are providing you with some scene-setting analysis.
The Armistice celebrations will dominate much of your time, but you will have ample opportunity to interact with both foreign officials and the media in various formats. Scripted public statements are expected to focus on mourning the millions killed and injured during World War I, along with the benefits of making peace, but each world leader attending the event also has his or her own personal list of policy issues to concurrently address.
More than 100 foreign dignitaries are expected at the Armistice Day ceremonies, including several heads of state with whom you have urgent business. There’s President Vladimir Putin (you are due to implement more sanctions against Russia next week), for one, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey from whom you can get more insights into the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Placing Bets: Which Trump are they going to get?
Most leaders will be questioning which President Trump will show up in Europe, and for how long. They’re probably wondering whether you will mark this solemn occasion by focusing on the sacrifices of all those who fought in WWI and the need for peaceful dialogue, or whether you’ll use the opportunity to lean right and prioritize nationalist agenda items in line with your previous comments that immigrants are changing the culture of Europe. By picking a fight with President Emmanuel Macron on Twitter upon your arrival in France on Friday, it looks like this is just the beginning of a confrontational weekend.
Limelight: You’re in focus
We assess that you won’t be leaving domestic events on US soil. While you participate in ceremonies to mark the end of one brutal war, many may think of your battle at home against the media (whom you’ve called the enemy of the people), immigrants (whom you’ve said are invading the US), and Democrats (whom you threatened just minutes after expressing interest in working together after the midterm elections).
After your press conference on Wednesday, other leaders probably expect you to play some of your greatest hits this weekend – including blaming immigrants for violence, criticizing “fake news”, and praising nationalist leaders. This is probably a cause for concern for leaders like Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and British Prime Minister Theresa May, all of whom espouse more liberal democratic views.
With you in focus, Putin, however, may be riding high on your divisive rhetoric, attacks on key democratic principles like free speech, and a free press, and what appear to be your attempts to stymie Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation. To top it off, you expressed a willingness to hold US lawmaking hostage if House Democrats take actions against you that you don’t like.
Rose Ceremony: Who’s In or Out
Several of the leaders present have drifted in and out of your good graces. Putin has remained a favorite, but your bromance with Macron has seemingly been replaced by your affection for Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. While you and Macron hit it off during your last trip to France and his subsequent visit to the White House, you said that you are more closely aligned with Conte than any other G7 leader, Macron, May, and Merkel included. Other leaders are probably wondering how much you will publicly and privately ally with Conte and other nationalist leaders instead of the more liberal, progressive officials. Leaders, including Macron, are likely anxious to see whether you throw them under the bus during public appearances or unscripted press conferences.
Flashpoints: Not Lost in Translation
There are several potential flashpoints among the dignitaries expected to attend the centennial ceremonies, the most significant of which is the growing divide between liberal democratic leaders and a growing cadre of far right, nationalist ones.
Macron, who is hosting the celebrations, is under pressure. He’s facing declining approval ratings and criticism for his handling of issues like unemployment and labor market reforms. He is on a seven-day tour in France to address more local concerns and try to “reconquer” French voters.
Macron is expected to castigate growing far-right groups ahead of the European Parliamentary elections this spring, especially after their victories in Italy and Sweden. If Macron openly attacks nationalism, he knows that he’ll also effectively be criticizing you, after you embraced the same label. While Macron defeated Marine Le Pen in 2017, she has already rebranded the Nationalist Front party and announced her intentions to work with other nationalist groups in next year’s European elections. Macron knows that you and Le Pen, along with Conte and Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, all share an affinity for securing national borders and stopping immigration. Leaders may have to publicly pick sides.
The flashpoint over immigration, linked to the divide between nationalists and more progressive liberal democrats, may become apparent during the celebrations. The debate rages on within countries like Germany, and among members of the European Union.
Iran sanctions will also probably come up during your encounters. Several of those in attendance are allied against America’s new sanctions on Iran, which went into effect this week. Many EU countries, along with Russia and Turkey, can be expected to raise their opposition to them while agreeing with you that Iran is engaged in dangerous activities – including attempted assassinations on European soil. Your peers will be wondering whether you can work together with them to confront Iran’s malign activities in spite of these disagreements.
Russia: Mile High Club
Your fright is Putin’s delight – any signs that you’re under pressure or losing control of a cohesive, democratic order will further embolden him. He will think that his mission to sow divisions in the US and undermine the US-led liberal democratic order is bearing real fruit. While you were his preferred candidate for President in 2016, his overarching goal remains a weak America, even if it has you at the helm. In light of increasing divisions in the US and an uptick in political violence and hate crimes, he’ll probably be high on life when he arrives in France.
Putin is well aware of your position on the INF treaty, and likely very unhappy about the recent sanctions against Russia and your attempt to deter cyber operations from the Kremlin. But when he hears you praise your personal relationship despite Russia’s illegal activities, it’s music to his ears because it appears that you’re placing your personal needs above US national security.
But Putin needs more than your praise right now. Putin’s own approval ratings have dropped significantly so he’s going to try to forestall any additional economic pressure, including any new US sanctions. He knows that you’re due to impose a second round of sanctions against Russia next week for failing to take “remedial measures” on chemical weapons after a nerve agent attack in the UK. While it’s unclear whether you two will meet, Putin may try to convince you to push off the sanctions for some reason wholly unrelated to the fact that he broke US law.
