Editor’s Note: Samantha Vinograd is a CNN National Security Analyst. She served on President Obama’s National Security Council from 2009-2013 and at the Treasury Department under President Bush. Follow her @sam_vinograd. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion articles on CNN.
Every week, I offer a glimpse of the kind of intelligence assessments that are likely to come across the desk of the President of the United States. Modeled on the President’s Daily Briefing, or PDB, which the director of national intelligence prepares for the President almost daily, my Presidential Weekly Briefing focuses on the topics and issues the President needs to know to make informed decisions.
Here’s this week’s briefing:
North Korea: Status update
About six weeks after your meeting with Kim Jong Un in Singapore, we are sharing a status update on North Korea’s moves to fulfill its promises to you.
We have seen no meaningful freeze in North Korea’s proliferation efforts or signals that its intentions to denuclearize have strengthened. As Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testified publicly last week, North Korea continues to produce fissile material and there has been open source reporting about potential North Korean secret nuclear sites. Last week, the Central Committee of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party decreed that North Korea will never give up its nuclear weapons.
Kim has at least started to fulfill one promise he made to you by reportedly beginning to dismantle the Sohae Satellite Launching Station – a key testing site – but without allowing in inspectors. This reported dismantlement is consistent with previous efforts to dismantle test facilities. But our assessment remains that Kim is willing to dismantle these sites because testing is no longer needed as required capabilities have been reached. Without the need for testing, North Korea is transitioning to mass production of nuclear and missile systems.
And Kim did return 55 remains which may be American soldiers who died in the Korean War, potentially fulfilling another promise he made to you in Singapore. Both the Sohae dismantlement and return of Korean War remains (if testing proves they are American) may be confidence-building measures, but they may also be used to push you for reciprocal moves by the United States. With China (and likely Russia) supporting him, Kim will likely ask for some kind of sanctions relief in exchange for his recent actions. China has already recommended lifting sanctions on North Korea, and both China and Russia favor a step-by-step approach to denuclearization in which you give Kim something for each step that he takes despite the fact that neither the Sohae dismantlement nor return of remains are related to denuclearization.
Pakistan: New profile picture
After an election marred by violence, election rigging and other irregularities, we are providing an initial profile of Pakistan’s likely new Prime Minister, Imran Khan.
Khan’s celebrity past and personal brand of nationalistic populism have led to some public comparisons with you. He has prioritized combating government corruption – draining the swamp – and he has criticized his predecessors for failing to address the needs of the Pakistani people. Khan’s PTI party may be in power for the first time, but because the Pakistani military and intelligence services are believed to have been heavily involved in securing his victory, they will likely continue to maintain leverage over his administration and overall policymaking in Pakistan.
We believe Khan’s swearing in will have implications for the US-Pakistan relationship, which he has called one-sided. He has said he wants a “mutually beneficial” relationship with the United States, but this will not be easy. Khan has led protests against CIA drone programs and the US war in Afghanistan, called NATO “Western liberals thirsty for blood,” and views the United States as a destabilizing force in Pakistan. Khan has even been nicknamed “Taliban Khan” by some of his critics and has been publicly sympathetic toward the Taliban – including his statements that seem to defend the Taliban and its system of justice and descriptions of a senior terrorist commander killed in a drone strike as pro peace.
Criticizing the United States and our programs – including counterterrorism ones – will likely become more pronounced under Khan, despite ongoing US civilian assistance programs. He may privately ask you to reconsider your decision to freeze US security assistance to Pakistan but will likely insist on new conditions for US operations in Pakistan and the region.
At the same time, Khan says he wants to improve relations with Pakistan’s neighbors, including India. And we should expect Khan to embrace a closer relationship with China – he said as much in his victory speech – especially since China is pouring investment into Pakistan, which could make Pakistan less dependent on the United States for assistance.
Italy: Friend request
Ahead of your meeting on Monday with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, we are sharing our assessment that he will likely want to use the visit to get you on the record supporting his policies on immigration, including stemming the flow of migrants into the European Union and sharing responsibility for migrants who arrive by sea – Italy had the most migrant arrivals by sea last year – more equitably among EU members. He’s said the management of migrant flows, to date, has been a failure that has overburdened front-line states like Italy.
He knows you have publicly supported him as being “strong on immigration” before. In light of your Twitter statements on Sunday about the need for a border wall, he may seek to reiterate your previous statement that immigrants are destroying European culture, because it tracks with his own views on the need to decrease and streamline migrants coming to Europe. He presented a proposal on overhauling EU-level rules on asylum seekers and migration to other EU leaders a few weeks ago and will likely continue to press for stricter policies and stronger border controls.
Russia: Direct messaging
Russia’s navy parade showed off some expensive Russian assets, but President Vladimir Putin is also increasingly relying on weapons that are much cheaper than the warships he displayed on Sunday. His information warfare attacks are becoming less costly as he utilizes direct public messaging with you as a tool to attack the United States.
We assess that Putin prefers direct public messaging on sensitive issues because he thinks it makes our government look capricious and responsive to him and the media – rather than to our own policy objectives. This helps his goals of undermining our credibility and sowing confusion.
We also believe Putin will increasingly rely on personally communicating with you through the media to get your attention and try to manipulate you into agreeing to do what he wants. He’s used bots and trolls to do this before, but now he’s personally delivering messages and may be letting his team amplify those messages when he’s done.
We analyzed his public statements last Friday, the day you hosted a National Security Council meeting on election interference and praised US economic growth. Putin made several comments that were designed in no small part for you. He fired a calibrated shot straight at the economic growth that you were touting by stating that US sanctions are undermining confidence in the dollar, directly linking sanctions he wants you to lift with risks to the economy, which he may believe is your priority.
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We also think Putin was purposefully complimenting you – this time on your track record on fulfilling campaign promises to American voters, which the White House has also touted – probably because he thinks flattery gets your attention (you called him after he previously complimented the US economy), and he may make you more submissive to agreeing to what he wants from you.
Notably, these direct messages are hitting the media at the same time reports about Russia’s expanding attacks against the United States are being publicly disclosed. Last week, the media reported on more widespread cyberattacks in the United States, including hacking of the US electric grid.
So, Putin’s operations, in one way or another, are dominating the public domain.
